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Week 16: Betting Primer

Life is full of some pretty great traditions, including outdated ones such as standing under the mistletoe during the holiday season in an attempt to get someone to kiss you. This isn’t so much a great tradition as it is a disgraceful and pathetic attempt at getting someone to show you a little bit of affection. Anyways, this has gotten off to a weird start, so let’s shift our attention to what you’re all here for – Week 16 NFL betting.

Week 16 sees the return of a sneaky little tradition that I often forget about – regular-season Saturday games. These are a nice little treat to fill the massive void left by college football and this season we have a big-time tripleheader featuring Houston vs Tampa Bay, Buffalo vs New England and the LA Rams vs San Francisco.

Per usual, when there’s something a bit unique on the weekly schedule, I like to take a deep dive to see if there’s any sort of historical edge we can apply to our handicapping and we might have one with regular-season games that are played on a Saturday.

Looking at the last 10 seasons, we’ve seen both underdogs and road teams cover the spread at a rate of 60 percent. Going back even further, all the way back to 1984, road teams have covered in 59.1 percent of Saturday games.

Underdogs and road teams have covered the spread in 60% of Saturday games over the last 10 seasons.

So we have a pretty big sample size, although I’m not sure there’s much logic to back up the pattern. Maybe it is just a coincidence because you’d assume the home team, which is the favorite in most cases, would have the advantage this late in the season not needing to travel on a short week. Or maybe we’re simply accounting for that home-field advantage too much. 

Either way, it’ll be interesting to see if the long-standing trends hold up this weekend. Speaking of long-standing trends for games played in unique situations, there’s a number of standout ones for NBA Christmas Day games that I invite you to check out in Gilles Gallant’s article.  

And, speaking of Christmas Day, the holidays are here, meaning I’ll be off for a chunk of next week, enjoying some ice-cold beer while rotating through different pairs of jogging pants. I’ll be back next week with a Betting Primer for Week 17, but until then, Merry Christmas, good luck and, as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Week 16 Stats and Trends:

Texans-Buccaneers
  • Over the last three games, the Bucs are fifth in yards per play. During this span, the Texans are 29th in yards per play allowed.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Buccaneers' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 61.0)
  • The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
  • The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The Texans are 7-1 SU in their last eight games as road favorites.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-0 SU in their last four games. (Avg winning margin: 13.5)
  • The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on Saturday.
Bills-Patriots
  • In two career games vs the Patriots, Josh Allen has 1 TD and 5 INTs with a 47.8 percent completion rate.
  • The Patriots are allowing just 12.27 points over their last 15 games.
  • The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bills' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.67)
  • The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Patriots' last 15 games in December.
  • The Patriots are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home in December.
  • The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home after failing to cover in their two most recent home games.
  • The Bills are 2-16 SU in their last 18 games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games on the road vs the Patriots.
49ers-Rams
  • The Rams are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games on the road.
  • The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the 49ers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 57.13)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the 49ers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.6)
  • The 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams' last six games on the road vs the 49ers.
Bengals-Dolphins
  • The Bengals are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bengals' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.63)
  • The Bengals are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 9.83)
  • The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in December.
  • The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Dolphins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 57.8)
  • The Dolphins are 7-1 SU in their last eight games as home favorites.
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games at home in December.
  • The Bengals are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Dolphins.
Giants-Redskins
  • The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Giants' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.78)
  • The Giants are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Redskins' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 36.82)
  • The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games at home.
  • The Redskins are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants' last six games vs the Redskins. (Avg combined score: 33.83)
Jaguars-Falcons
  • The Jaguars are last in third-down conversion percentage over the last three games. The Falcons are first in third-down defense during this span.
  • The Jaguars are the most penalized team over the last three games and the second-most penalized team in road games.
  • the Jaguars are averaging just 12.83 points over their last six games.
  • The Jaguars are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • The Jaguars are 3-16 SU in their last 19 games on the road in December.
  • The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Falcons are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons' last 11 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.64)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Falcons' last 20 games at home in December.
  • The Falcons are 0-14 ATS in their last 14 games vs the AFC.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Jaguars' last six games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 37.17)
Steelers-Jets
  • The Jets rank last in yards per play. The Steelers are third in yards per play allowed.
  • The Steelers are 29th in yards per play. The Jets are seventh in yards per play allowed.
  • The Steelers are last in red-zone TD scoring percentage over the last three games. The Jets are fourth in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage during this span.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.83)
  • The Steelers are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games on the road in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Jets' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.5)
  • The Jets are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games in December.
  • The Jets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Steelers' last 16 games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 30.94)
Ravens-Browns
  • The Ravens are 12-2 on 6-point teasers this season.
  • The Ravens have a league-best 11-3 ATS record in the first quarter.
  • The Browns are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Ravens are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs the Browns.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Ravens are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games. (Avg winning margin: 18.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.14)
  • The Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Browns are 4-0 SU in their last four games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.5)
  • The Browns are 4-22-1 SU in their last 27 games as home underdogs.
  • The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
Panthers-Colts
  • The Panthers are 0-6 SU in their last six games. (Avg losing margin: 11.83)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 58.4)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Colts' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.5)
  • The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs the AFC.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Panthers' last 10 games vs the AFC.
  • The Colts are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games as favorite.
  • The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The Colts are 21-8 SU in their last 29 games at home vs teams with losing records.
Saints-Titans
  • The Saints are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Saints are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Titans' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 53.5)
  • The Titans are 5-20 SU in their last 25 games as home underdogs.
  • The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs.
  • The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs the NFC.
  • The Saints are 1-5 SU in their last six games vs the Titans.
Lions-Broncos
  • The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Lions are 0-7 SU in their last seven games. (Avg losing margin: 9.0)
  • The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • The Lions are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Broncos' last 23 games. (Avg combined score: 37.91)
  • The Broncos are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Broncos' last 12 games in December.
  • The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home in December.
  • The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
Raiders-Chargers
  • The Chargers rank fourth in yards per play. The Raiders are 29th in yards per play allowed.
  • Over the last three games, the Chargers are tied for third in third-down conversion percentage. Oakland is last in third-down defense during this span.
  • The Chargers are tied for the third-fewest penalties in home games. The Raiders average the sixth-most penalties in road games.
  • The Raiders are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Raiders' last 13 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Chargers' last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Raiders' last six games vs the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 36.67)
  • The Raiders are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The Chargers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home in December.
  • The Chargers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs their division at home.
Cardinals-Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are the least penalized team at home. The Cardinals have the most penalties on the road.
  • The Seahawks are 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in their last 36 December home games
  • The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Seahawks' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 61.2)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Seahawks' last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Seahawks are 25-4 SU in their last 29 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cardinals are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cardinals' last four games on the road vs the Seahawks.
Cowboys-Eagles
  • The Cowboys are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Eagles.
  • The Eagles are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 50.29)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Eagles' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 33.2)
  • The Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Cowboys' last 18 games in December.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road after failing to cover in their most recent road game.
Chiefs-Bears
  • The Bears are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.
  • The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Chiefs' last 17 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 62.0)
  • The Chiefs are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games as favorite.
  • The Chiefs are 19-4-1 ATS in their last 24 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bears' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 34.3)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games at home in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chiefs' last six games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 28.83)
Packers-Vikings
  • The Packers are last in net yards per play on the road. The Vikings are tied for fifth at home.
  • The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 MNF games and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of the last 20 MNF games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 25 of the Vikings’ last 33 divisional games and in 16 of their last 18 divisional home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Packers' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Packers' last 10 games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 40.0)
  • The Packers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs their division on the road.
  • The Packers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Vikings' last six games. (Avg combined score: 49.0)
  • The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Vikings are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 13.5)