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Week 17 NFL Betting Picks, Stats and Trends Primer

Week 17 NFL Picks

With the exception of Week 1, Week 17 is the most unique week on the NFL schedule because we don’t know what we’re going to get in a lot of these games. Head coaches of teams that already have their playoff spot locked in are being coy about playing their starters. Teams with nothing to play for will compete in meaningless games. And, some teams and players will be feeling more pressure than they have all season as they make a push to get into the playoffs — I’m looking at you, Kirk Cousins.

So, what’s a bettor to do? There’s no easy solution, but every game is different. Teams such as the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jets playing in meaningless games have head coaches who are coaching for their jobs, so we should expect the best effort in these instances (of course, effort doesn’t always equal a positive result).

A team like the Raiders, though, with a head coach who knows he isn’t going anywhere, might be more inclined to try some different “strategies” that could improve their chance of moving up in the draft but decrease their chance of winning or covering on Sunday. Then we have the scoreboard watchers like the Bears who can do nothing to improve their playoff seed if the Rams win.

But, for a lot of teams with something to play for — the Patriots, Chiefs and Rams, to name a few — it will be business as usual from a game-planning and motivational standpoint, so maybe that’s where you’ll find an edge in Week 17. By focusing on teams that will maintain the status quo, it’s easier to rely on past stats and other handicapping tools that we’ve used throughout the season.

Good luck on Sunday!

Best bets for Week 17

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 17 of the NFL season using lines from Friday, December 28:

  • Ravens -5.5
  • Rams -10
  • Patriots -13.5
  • Bears +2.5 first-half spread
  • Browns vs Ravens OVER 40.5
  • Falcons vs Bucs UNDER 52
  • Packers vs Lions OVER 45
  • Bears vs Vikings UNDER 40.5
  • Eagles vs Redskins OVER 41.5
  • Cardinals vs Seahawks OVER 38.5
  • Bengals vs Steelers OVER 45.5
  • Colts vs Titans UNDER 43.5

Stats and Trends for Week 17

Jets at Patriots
  • The Patriots are averaging 33 points over their last six home games. Over their last three home games, they’ve allowed just 13 points per game. The Jets are averaging just 15.4 points per game over their last five road games.
  • The Patriots are 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Patriots' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 40.88)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Jets' last five games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 39.2)
  • The Jets are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 11.71)
  • The visiting team is 1-5 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
  • The Patriots are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Jets' last four games. (Avg combined score: 57.75)
Falcons at Buccaneers
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Falcons' last five games vs the Buccaneers. (Avg combined score: 57.6)
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Buccaneers. (Avg winning margin: 9.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Buccaneers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.4)
  • The Buccaneers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Buccaneers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games at home in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Falcons' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
  • The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS wins.
Cowboys at Giants
  • The Cowboys are averaging just 13.63 points over their last eight road games.
  • The Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 17.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Cowboys' last 11 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 32.82)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last five games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 30.2)
  • The Cowboys are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Giants. (Avg winning margin: 14.33)
  • The Giants are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Giants are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after an ATS win.
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 2-5 SU in their last seven games on the road.
Dolphins at Bills
  • The Dolphins are averaging just 15.21 points per game over their last 14 road games. They’re allowing 35.25 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in net yards per play on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Dolphins' last seven games vs the Bills. (Avg combined score: 48.43)
  • The Dolphins are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Bills.
  • The Bills are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Dolphins' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 42.86)
  • The Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Jaguars at Texans
  • Jaguars games have an average combined score of 35.78 this season. This is the lowest in the NFL. These teams combined for 27 points on October 21.
  • The Texans are averaging 31.5 points over their last four home games. The Jaguars are averaging 15.67 points over their last six road games.
  • The Texans have allowed a league-high 358.7 passing yards per game over their last three games.
  • The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Texans.
  • The Texans are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Texans are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Jaguars are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Jaguars are 2-27 SU in their last 29 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Lions at Packers
  • The Packers are averaging 31.67 points over their last three games. The Lions are averaging 15.25 points over their last four road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Lions' last six games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 52.17)
  • The Lions are 2-25 SU in their last 27 games on the road vs the Packers.
  • The Packers are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games as favorite.
  • The Packers are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games in Week 17.
  • The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Packers' last 14 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last six games. (Avg combined score: 34.5)
Panthers at Saints
  • The Panthers are last in the NFL in net yards per play over the last three games.
  • The Saints are allowing an average of just 14.57 points over their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Panthers' last nine games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 53.11)
  • The Panthers are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Saints. (Avg losing margin: 9.75)
  • The Saints are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last six games. (Avg combined score: 41.33)
  • The Panthers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games. (Avg losing margin: 9.29)
  • The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road in December.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Panthers' last 18 games on the road after consecutive home games.
49ers at Rams
  • Rams home games have had an average combined score of 63.14 this season. This is the highest in the NFL.
  • The 49ers are averaging just 16 points over their last five games. The Rams are averaging 37.67 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The 49ers have a 12.50% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games. This is the worst in the NFL over that span. They also rank last overall on the road.
  • Over their last three games, the 49ers are allowing an NFL-worst 85.71% opponents' red-zone scoring percentage. 
  • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Rams.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the 49ers' last four games vs the Rams. (Avg combined score: 54.75)
  • The Rams are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games in Week 17.
  • The 49ers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in Week 17.
  • The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 18.4)
  • The 49ers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 10.29)
  • The 49ers are 1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Bears at Vikings
  • The Bears have an NFL-best +7.8 first-half point differential. They’re 7-1 ATS on the first-half spread over their last eight games.
  • The Vikings lead the NFL in net yards per play at home and over the last three games.
  • Over their last three games, the Bears have held opponents to an 11.11% red-zone TD scoring percentage. 
  • The Bears are allowing 16 points per game over their last four road games. The Vikings are allowing 14.33 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Vikings have held their opponents to an insane 78 passing yards per game over their last three games.
  • The Bears are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bears' last 14 games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 39.57)
  • The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 12.67)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Vikings' last five games. (Avg combined score: 39.4)
  • The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
  • The Vikings are 8-1-1 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Bengals at Steelers
  • The Bengals are 5-10 ATS on the first-half spread. This ties them for the worst record in the league. The Steelers are 9-5-1 ATS.
  • Steelers home games have an average combined score of 55.86 this season while Bengals road games are at 53.29.
  • At home, the Steelers have an 86.36% red-zone TD scoring percentage. This is the best in the NFL. The Bengals are a surprising first in the NFL on the road at 83.33%.
  • The Steelers are averaging 34.6 points over their last five home games.
  • The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Steelers.
  • The Bengals are 0-7 SU in their last seven games vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 7.43)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Steelers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.4)
  • The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • The Steelers are 13-1-1 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bengals' last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bengals are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the late afternoon.
Browns at Ravens
  • In four of the six games with Lamar Jackson starting, the Ravens rushed for OVER 200 yards. Cleveland ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed and has allowed the third-most rush TDs.
  • Browns road games have had an average combined score of 50.86 points this season.
  • The Browns are 3-18 SU in their last 21 games vs the Ravens.
  • The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Browns' last four games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 31.75)
  • The Ravens are 17-7 SU in their last 24 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Ravens' last nine games vs their division at home.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Browns are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Browns' last 22 games in December.
Cardinals at Seahawks
  • The Cardinals are allowing an NFL-worst 202 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Seattle rushes for the most yards per game in the league.
  • The Cardinals have an NFL-worst -8.2 first-half point differential and are 5-10 ATS on the first-half spread.
  • The Seahawks are averaging 34 points over their last three home games. The Cardinals have allowed 34 points per game over their last three road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Seahawks' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 54.29)
  • Seahawks home games have an average combined score of 50 points this season.
  • The Seahawks have an NFL-best +14 turnover differential. Arizona ranks 29th at -11.
  • The Seahawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cardinals' last three games on the road vs the Seahawks.
  • The Cardinals are 3-0 SU in their last three games on the road vs the Seahawks. (Avg winning margin: 4.0)
  • The visiting team is 9-1-1 SU in the last 11 games in this matchup.
  • The Seahawks are 23-4 SU in their last 27 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Cardinals' last 24 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.17)
Chargers at Broncos
  • The Chargers rank first in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Chargers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Broncos. (Avg losing margin: 7.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.33)
  • The Broncos are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games vs their division at home.
  • The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home in December.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chargers' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.86)
  • The Chargers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chargers' last four games on the road vs the Broncos.
Eagles at Redskins
  • The Eagles are 5-10 ATS on the first-half spread. This ties them for the worst record in the league. The Redskins are 9-6 ATS.
  • The Eagles allow a league-high 338.7 passing yards per game on the road.
  • The Redskins have allowed 33.67 points over their last three home games. The Eagles have allowed 33.33 points over their last three road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Eagles' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.63)
  • The visiting team is 3-7 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • The Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • Nick Foles defeated Tom Brady in the most recent Super Bowl.
  • The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Redskins are 1-5 SU in their last six games as underdog.
  • The Eagles are 4-1 SU in their last five games vs their division on the road.
Raiders at Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are averaging 32 points per game at home this season. The Raiders are averaging just 13.8 points per game over their last five road games.
  • Raiders road games this season have had an average combined score of 43 points.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Raiders' last 10 games on the road vs the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Raiders are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs their division on the road.
  • The Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last eight games vs the Chiefs.
  • The Raiders are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Chiefs.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last five games. (Avg combined score: 71.0)
  • The Raiders are 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Colts at Titans
  • The road team is 6-14 SU in the last 20 SNF games.
  • Titans games have an average combined score of 37.53 this season — second-lowest in the NFL.
  • The Colts average 6.9 fewer points in road games.
  • The Colts have a 90% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games. This is the best in the NFL over this span.
  • The Titans are allowing 14.25 points per game over their last four home games.
  • The Colts are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs the Titans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Colts' last four games vs the Titans. (Avg combined score: 45.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Colts' last six games. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Titans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Colts are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 17.