Heading into today’s final slate of games, six teams are fighting for three remaining wild-card berths. In the AFC, the Chargers and Bills need wins and some help to leapfrog Tennessee and Baltimore. In the NFC, the final wild card will belong to either the Falcons or Seahawks by day’s end. For Atlanta, a win and they’re in, while Seattle needs to beat the Cardinals and for Carolina to upset the Falcons on the road.
As is typically the case in Week 17, several teams will rest their prop bet-friendly stars this afternoon, thus shrinking a familiar pool of players to target in advantageous matchups.
We’ll have no Todd Gurley in a delicious matchup against the 49ers and no Le’Veon Bell despite the fact Pittsburgh could still earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. However, in the NFC, the Saints starters will play as New Orleans needs a win over Tampa Bay to secure the NFC South title. The Buccaneers possess one of the league’s worst pass defenses this season.
All prop odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Dion Lewis Rush Yards O/U 72 ½
The Bet: OVER (-115)
Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee are inactive and Adam Schefter is reporting that James White will be out, too. This leaves Lewis and Brandon Bolden (remember him?).
Opposing running backs have averaged 27 carries for 109.5 yards with three touchdowns against the Jets over the last two games.
Lewis rushed 24 times for 129 yards and a touchdown last week. Against the Jets back in October, when Gillislee and White were active, Lewis rushed 11 times for 52 yards and a touchdown.
Note: White must be inactive for there to be action. Inactives released 11:30 a.m. ET
Bilal Powell Rush Yards O/U 50 1/2
The Bet: OVER (-115)
Matt Forte was placed on injured reserve and will not play.
Last week, Powell finished with 19 carries for 145 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. Today, he faces a Patriots defense that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs since Week 10. During that stretch, a span of seven games, opposing RBs have averaged 102.3 yards per game.
Larry Fitzgerald Rec. Yards O/U 67 1/2
The Bet: OVER (-115)
&
Larry Fitzgerald Receptions O/U 6
The Bet: OVER (6)
Over his past three starts, Drew Stanton has targeted Larry Fitzgerald 38 times. Against the 49ers in early November, Stanton managed to target Fitz nine times even though Adrian Peterson rushed 37 times and paced the offense.
Stanton is going out of his way to find the veteran wide receiver as his security blanket. Stanton-to-Fitz racked up 113 yards on 10 receptions when they faced Seattle earlier this year.
Seattle’s secondary has allowed 12.1 receptions and 160 receiving yards per game over their past six contests.
Other favorable matchups I like for Week 17: Drew Brees vs TB, LeSean McCoy vs MIA, Alex Collins vs CIN, Jameis Winston vs NO, Matthew Stafford vs GB, Kirk Cousins vs NYG, Antonio Gates vs OAK.
