After a rough start in Week 1 with my NFL picks, there’s only one way to go and that’s up. NFL betting is a roller-coaster all season and the key for Week 2 betting is not to overreact to Week 1 results.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 2!
All betting odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Giants Moneyline (+105) vs Bills
Look, this bet could easily blow up in my face but I’m still not convinced the Bills are any good. Buffalo has a quarterback who threw two interceptions and lost a fumble and has only one speedy receiver in John Brown.
I’m not going to pretend the Giants defense is the ’85 Bears but it should be able to neutralize Josh Allen from scrambling to win this game. I also think the Giants won’t allow Saquon Barkley to rush only 11 times and he should go off in Week 2 so give me the G-Men to beat down the Bills. This game also fits the trend in my article about teams winning SU when an underdog of 3 points or less.
Chiefs vs Raiders OVER 53 (-110)
I think this is a lock. The Chiefs offense is a runaway train that can’t be stopped. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as quarterback at the start of the 2018 season, KC has averaged over 40 points per road game and put up 40 on the Jags defense in Week 1. In fact, with Mahomes, the fewest number of points the Chiefs have scored is 26.
When the Chiefs played in Oakland last season, they scored 37. Then when you factor in the shaky Kansas City defense that let the Jaguars’ Gardner Minshew put up 26 points on them, I think this game easily gets to the 60s.
Steelers -3.5 vs Seahawks (-110)
This pick is exactly what I was referring to in my intro about not writing off a team just because of a Week 1 result. The Steelers are much better than their showing vs New England but the reality is the Patriots make a lot of teams in the NFL look like trash and have owned Pitt in the Brady/Belichick era.
Returning to Heinz Field, I fully expect Pittsburgh’s offense to wake up and for its defense to contain the Seahawks run game and make Russell Wilson have to beat them throwing the football.
Seahawks vs Steelers Game Center
Dolphins +19.5 vs Patriots (-110)
I know everyone and their dog will be on the Patriots for this one but as I detailed in my articlethis week about large spreads, the Pats aren’t a winning bet in this spot. This is the largest road favorite in the NFL since 2007 when New England was rolling through the league, and the sixth time the Patriots have been a favorite of 18 points or more since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Foxborough.
The Patriots didn’t cover the spread in any of those five games and historically are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six trips to Miami. This is still an NFL game and it’s just too many points to give to a favorite.
Patriots vs Dolphins Game Center
Eagles/Rams Moneyline Parlay (+210)
I think these are the two strongest teams in the NFC and with them being favored by 2 points, it lends itself to a perfect parlay opportunity. The Rams looked strong on the road vs the Panthers and, returning home, I think they open up the playbook and take down the Saints.
As for the Eagles, this pick is more of an indictment of the Falcons. Atlanta looked horrible in Week 1 and while I think the Dirty Birds will offer a stronger showing in Week 2, it likely won’t be enough vs the Eagles. Philly’s offense looked so good and I don’t think any NFL team can shut it down. The only way the Falcons win this game is if they put up 35 or more points, and even then, I’m skeptical.
Browns vs Jets UNDER 44 (-105)
I was already looking at the UNDER before Sam Darnold was ruled out with mono as the total opened at 46, but now the offense will be turned over to Trevor Siemian, who hasn’t started an NFL game since 2017. In 10 starts with the Broncos in 2017, his offense averaged 17.3 points per game and in 2016, the offense put up 19.2 points per game.
Do we really expect him to light it up with the Jets? I don’t think so.
Then there’s the Browns, who fell flat on their faces, and QB Baker Mayfield looked lost. The Jets defense is their strong suit and although they’ll likely be missing MLB CJ Mosley, I still think they can limit the Browns to 21 points or less. Look for this game to finish around the 24-17 mark and for a very boring affair for Monday Night Football.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more analysis and extra football prop picks. Happy Betting!
