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Week 3 NFL Stats and Trends Betting Primer

You MUST keep an open mind. No, I’m not talking about being more receptive to the pitfalls of online dating, I’m talking about being open to change with your betting approach.

This is my primary goal with my 2019 NFL betting. In Week 2, I did something that I would never have previously done, and that was picking the Cardinals to cover a +13 spread in Baltimore. The past few seasons, this would have been a stay-away spot for me, but I’m slowly learning that it’s necessary to step outside of my comfort zone and pull the trigger on bets that look ugly based on recent performances and reputations.

If you have any experience with sports betting whatsoever, then you realize things don’t often work out the way they should based on what the stats and trends are telling us. If they did, then we’d all be rich.

That brings me to my point when looking at some underperforming teams coming into Week 3. We come into the week with eight teams that are 0-2 ATS: Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Saints and Panthers.

For a multitude of reasons, I’d say everyone on that 0-2 ATS list outside of maybe the Eagles is very hard to put your trust in this weekend, but this has been a very profitable spot over the years.

Over the last three seasons, teams that started 0-2 ATS have an ATS record of 16-5 in Week 3!

Over the last three seasons, teams that started 0-2 ATS have an ATS record of 16-5 (76%) in Week 3! A bigger sample size has them at 23-12 ATS (65.7%) over the last five seasons and 44-32 ATS (57.8%) over the last 10 seasons.

That right there is all the proof required to show that sometimes ‘”ugly” picks are good picks, so keep an open mind with your picks this season … and also be open to the flaws of people you come across in the online dating world. You’re not perfect either.

How to get an Upgrade at a Las Vegas Hotel

I had a pretty good response to last week’s post where I laid out my process for maximizing your beer drinking experience on game day, so here’s another tip that will hopefully maximize your Las Vegas hotel experience on your next trip to the city.

Simply checking in to the room that you paid for is a chump move when visiting a tourist trap like Vegas. Next-level hospitality is at the forefront of what the mega casino/hotels offer, and getting an upgrade is more common than you think — you just have to know how to ask, because you likely won’t get one if you don’t try.

Here’s the three different options I’ve used that have all worked:

The $20 trick: This is the most common and most genuine approach. When checking in, you’re required to present an ID and a credit card. You simply place a folded $20 bill between the cards, pass them to the employee, and ask “Are there any upgrades available?” It’s a wink-wink move that both sides are in on, and it’s worked for me almost every time I did it. If you’re there for a longer stay, consider a $50 bill instead.

The TripAdvisor honeymooners: When checking in with your romantic partner in tow, enthusiastically mention that you did a lot of research on TripAdvisor and that you’re excited to finally be staying at (insert hotel name) to celebrate your honeymoon, engagement, etc. It’s a few things jammed into a sentence but it works because A: It’s a special trip for you and they want your stay to be memorable so you’ll come back, and B: They want to please an active TripAdvisor user to get a positive review. This move requires a bit of acting on your part.

The liar: This is the greasiest and least honorable option because it involves flat-out lying, but sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. Many hotels have kiosk check-in options in the lobby that get you into a room quicker. The major drawback is that there’s no wiggle room to discuss room options and, like what happened to me, you could end up in a lower-level room with a great view of the parking lot. If this happens to you, call the lobby and complain that the room reeks of cigarette smoke and you’re severely allergic. I did this and was immediately placed on a higher floor with a fantastic view of the Strip.

Each move requires a little bit of boldness on your part, and your odds of getting a better room are better if checking in Sunday through Wednesday when hotel occupancy will be at its lowest. My efforts have resulted in something as simple as getting a room with a great view to getting upgraded from an entry-level room to a suite.

Try one of the techniques on your next trip and let me know how it goes. Good luck and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Here’s the best trends and stats for Week 3’s action:

Titans-Jaguars
  • The Titans won each matchup between these teams last season, 30-9 in December and 9-6 in September.
  • The Jaguars are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on Thursday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Titans' last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Titans' last nine games on the road vs the Jaguars.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jaguars' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.8)
  • The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Titans' last eight games at night.
Bengals-Bills
  • The Bills rank fifth in net yards per play. The Bengals are 30th.
  • The Bills have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100. Cincinnati has a league-worst 16.67%.
  • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Bills are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bills' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.2)
Broncos-Packers
  • The Packers have allowed the second-fewest points this season. The Broncos have scored the fifth-fewest points.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 38.09)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Packers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.4)
  • The Packers are 13-0-1 SU in their last 14 games at home in September.
  • The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home in September.
  • The Broncos are 0-6 SU in their last six games. (Avg losing margin: 7.33)
  • The Broncos are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
Dolphins-Cowboys
  • The Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 18.71)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.89)
  • The Cowboys are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 7.33)
  • The Dolphins rank last in net yards per play. The Cowboys are fourth.
Falcons-Colts
  • The Colts are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
  • The Colts are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Falcons' last four games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
  • The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 6-2 SU in their last eight games on the road in September.
  • The Falcons are 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games vs the AFC.
Giants-Buccaneers
  • The Giants beat the Bucs 38-35 in New York last season.
  • The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Giants are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 10.2)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Buccaneers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 43.25)
  • The Giants are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs the Buccaneers.
Jets-Patriots
  • The Patriots beat the Jets 38-3 in New England last season.
  • The Patriots lead the league in net yards per play this season. The Jets are 31st.
  • The Patriots are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a double-digit underdog vs New England.
  • The Patriots have allowed a league-low three points this season. The Jets scored just three points in their most recent game.
  • The Jets are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The Patriots are 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Jets' last six games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 39.5)
  • The Jets are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 14.63)
Lions-Eagles
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lions' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Eagles' last 14 games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.79)
  • The Lions are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games as underdog.
  • The Eagles are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.
  • The Eagles rank 29th in net yards per play.
Panthers-Cardinals
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Panthers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 40.0)
  • The Panthers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
  • The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Cardinals are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins.
Raiders-Vikings
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Vikings' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 39.64)
  • The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in September.
  • The Raiders are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games as road underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games as home favorites.
  • The Vikings are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home in September.
Ravens-Chiefs
  • The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 27-24 in Kansas City last season.
  • The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdog.
  • The Ravens are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games as road underdogs.
  • The Chiefs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chiefs' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 60.9)
  • The Chiefs are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games in September.
Saints-Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at home in September.
  • The Seahawks are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 9.17)
  • The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Saints' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 30.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Seahawks' last six games. (Avg combined score: 51.67)
  • The Seahawks have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100.
Steelers-49ers
  • The 49ers are third in net yards per play this season. The Steelers are 28th.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Steelers' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.57)
  • The Steelers are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 10.75)
  • The 49ers are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive ATS wins.
Texans-Chargers
  • The Chargers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Texans' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 53.75)
  • The Texans are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games as underdog.
  • The Chargers are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games as favorite.
  • The Chargers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games in the late afternoon.
  • The Texans are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs the Chargers.
Rams-Browns
  • The Rams are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Browns' last 21 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.48)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 42.6)
  • The Browns are 4-21-1 SU in their last 26 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Browns' last 12 games at night.
Bears-Redskins
  • The Bears have allowed the third-fewest points this season. The Redskins have allowed the second-most.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bears' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 27.57)
  • The Redskins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games at night.
  • The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The Redskins are 0-5 SU in their last five games at home. (Avg losing margin: 16.8)