It all comes down to this. After a season of expert spread picks, totals, and moneyline wagers, I've got one final NFL game to get back in the green. Here are my Super Bowl 58 best bets:
Jump to Super Bowl 58 Expert Picks:
NFL Pick #1 - SPREAD: 49ers -2 (-105)
NFL Pick #2 - TOTAL: UNDER 47.5 Points
NFL Pick #3 - GAME PROP: 49ers 3rd Quarter ML (-120)
Odds Shark Super Bowl 58 Betting Resources
| Market | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Outright | 4-9 | -4.61 |
| Spread | 24-20 | +5.47 |
| Point Total | 0-2 | -2.00 |
| Overall | 30-32 | -1.14 |
49ers -2 (-105) vs Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Page
Over on our Super Bowl futures page, I've already broken down why I'm leaning Niners as my game pick for Super Bowl 58. That selection was based on some zoomed-out advanced stats I care about; DOVA, EPA, and Point Differential. All three side with the Niners over the Chiefs.
Here, I'm gonna break down another key advantage I think will help San Fran to victory: the ground game. We know what the 49ers can do with Christian McCaffrey, as the team averaged the third-most rushing yards per game this year. They also just dropped 155 ground yards on a Lions team that was the second-best rushing defense in football.
But, the 49ers' rushing defense is going to be a sizeable edge here, too. The 49ers ranked fifth in the NFL with 97 rushing yards per game against, while the Chiefs ranked 17th (113.2). Taking away Isiah Pacheco and CEH from the Chiefs is going to really limit the offense. This note should also help you craft up some Super Bowl prop bets, too.
Sure, the Chiefs will still have the Mahomes-Kelce connection, but the 49ers also allowed the SECOND-FEWEST touchdowns to tight ends this season (three), really putting Andy Reid and the Chiefs in a tough spot to generate offense. As long as Brock Purdy and the 49ers can put up a few points, I think they can take this win.
UNDER 47.5 Total Points
Patrick Mahomes is a great quarterback, but he hasn't been the reason the Chiefs are great this year. That award falls to the defense, as the Chiefs have held opposing teams to under 20 points in five of their last six games. In those recent six contests, the OVER has hit just once. The 49ers have the defense to match Kansas City's, for sure, so I think this one has the potential to be a defensive slugfest and low-scoring affair.
The UNDER has been a hot commodity in recent Super Bowls, too. Only one of the last five big games has gone OVER (last year's), and the average total of the last five Super Bowls has been just 44.3 total points.
49ers 3rd-Quarter Moneyline (-120)
The 49ers have quietly been a menace in the third quarter this season. They averaged the second-most points in the third frame (6.4 per game) during the regular season, compared to Kansas City's 22nd ranking (4.0). Just look at last week's game against the Lions, for example. The 49ers came out of the halftime and dropped 17 points on Detroit in the third quarter.
The Lions win probability reached as a high as 90.4% with 8:29 left in the third quarter (leading 24-10 with possession).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 29, 2024
Just over 5 minutes of game clock later, the 49ers now have a 59% chance to win the game (with the game tied 24-24).#DETvsSF | #AllGrit | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/Nm8OMsac7y
For an offensive coaching staff that's so lauded for tactics and adjustments, it makes sense that the 49ers thrive in the third. I'll bet on that to manifest in the Super Bowl, too.
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