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The Pick Six: Week 6 NFL Picks

The Pick Six Week 6 NFL Betting

Hamster on a wheel would be the best way to describe my Week 5 betting performance with my NFL picks as I went 3-3, going 3-0 on my totals picks and 0-3 on my spread picks.

There is still a long way to go in this NFL season and in Week 6, there are some prime games to make some sweet cash. And remember, the key to sports betting is a short-term memory.

Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 6!

The Pick: OVER 57 Buccaneers vs Falcons

This may seem like a very high total to take an OVER on but I like it anyway mainly because of how poor both of these defenses are. The teams are the two worst in the league in points allowed per game while also ranking in the top five in points scored per game. Atlanta’s offense is on another level when playing at home (34.6 points per game) and with the Bucs receivers able to take the top off of the Falcons’ depleted defense, this total should finish somewhere in the 60s.

The Pick:  Panthers +1 vs Redskins

I’m still completely dumbfounded that the Deadskins are favored over anyone, let alone a legit team like the Panthers. Washington got worked over by the Saints and its one legit win over the Packers doesn’t look so great now after watching GB struggle. The Panthers are also an excellent 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games and they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. I think Carolina’s rushing attack (ranked first in the NFL) will run over the Skins and place the Panthers back in the conversation as a top-end team in the NFC.

The Pick: Chargers -1 vs Browns

I got burned last week thinking the Ravens would mop the floor with the Browns but underestimated one thing: how awful Joe Flacco is at being a quarterback. Philip Rivers does not have that problem and with offensive weapons that make the Ravens’ look like a B squad, I expect the Chargers to dominate that side of the ball. I’m not ready to crown the Browns as the next ascending team in the NFL as I think Baker Mayfield still can be turnover-prone and loosey-goosey with the football. Chargers in a rout.

The Pick: UNDER 59.5 Chiefs vs Patriots

The highest opening total of the season, I was inclined to take the Patriots to cover the spread but looking over the Chiefs’ last two games, I see a bit of regression offensively as Denver and Jacksonville kept the Mahomes Show in check (for his lofty standards). I know all of the stats/trends will tell you that both of these teams score a ton of points and have shoddy defenses, but I’m still not convinced that this will mirror a college football game for scoring. Call it a gut instinct but I think Bill Belichick devises a way to keep Mahomes to 20 to 24 points while the Pats gut out a last-minute victory.

The Pick: Steelers ML vs the Bengals

Call it snake-bitten, inept or just all-around underwhelming, the Bengals can’t seem to beat their divisional rival. The Steelers have won six straight games vs Cincy by an average margin of 7.5 points per game. There is a lot of bad blood between these teams and while I expect the Bengals to keep it close, I think they will have more personal foul penalties than touchdowns in this game. If the Bengals win on Sunday, then I’ll relent on bashing them so much but I think Pittsburgh wins this game handily.

The Pick: UNDER 40.5 Jaguars vs Cowboys

My colleague Iain McMillan wrote the betting preview for this matchup and I couldn’t agree with him more. Both of these offenses stink (especially the Cowboys’) and have defenses that can shut down most offenses. UNDERs are cashing in at an amazing rate during Cowboys games, hitting in eight of Dallas’s last nine with an average combined score of 32.7 points per game. It was a grind for Dallas to get to 26 points vs the Lions and I’d be surprised if they crack 20 vs the Jags secondary. Prepare for a snoozefest in Jerry World!

Gilles’ record after four weeks: 14-16

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