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Week 6 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Oct 08, 2018 8:30 AM ET

Being different is encouraged in society these days and that’s a great thing. For some, being different might mean gaining access to a cow to have instant access to milk, straight from the source. For another individual, being different might mean saving money on beer by buying non-alcoholic beer and adding your own alcohol. For some, it might mean simply stealing the milk and beer to avoid the inconvenience of needing to pay for it.

Or, for those of us in the betting public, being different might mean looking at non-traditional ways to bet on NFL games such as betting on first-quarter and first-half spreads. Through five weeks, some teams are standing out as very strong starters or very poor starters. To name a few:

Notable 1st Quarter point differentials:
  • Chiefs +10
  • Lions +5.0
  • Bengals +4.2
  • Titans +3.8
  • Packers -5.8
  • Steelers -4.6
  • Falcons -3.4
  • Jets -3.4
Notable 1st Half point differentials:
  • Bears +12
  • Chiefs +9.4
  • Patriots +6.4
  • Rams +6.4
  • Bucs -8.75
  • 49ers -7.4
  • Bills -7.2
  • Packers -6.6

Getting to the point, you can use this type of data to help lay the foundation for first-quarter and first-half bets. Specific to this week, the Rams have a +6.4 first-half point differential, while the Broncos are at -3.8. This is part of my reasoning for Rams -4 in the first half vs the Broncos being one of my best bets of the week. Anyways, on to the good stuff for those of you who aren’t big on reading paragraphs of text...

Best Bets for Week 6:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, October 11:

  • Eagles -1
  • Bills +10
  • Steelers +2.5
  • Chargers -1
  • Dolphins +3.5
  • Jaguars -3
  • Rams -4 1st half
  • Patriots -3.5 (more on this pick here)
  • Vikings + Rams + Packers ML parlay (-110)
  • Ravens vs Titans OVER 41.5
  • UNDER 18.5 for Cowboys team total
  • OVER 27.5 for Packers team total

Week 6 NFL Stats and Trends:

Eagles at Giants
  • The favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 TNF games.
  • Over their last eight home games, the Giants are averaging just 15.75 points per game.
  • In five career games vs the Giants, Carson Wentz has a 74.5 QB rating. This is his lowest vs any divisional opponent.
  • The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest rush yards per game at 66.4.
  • The Eagles are first in the NFL in time of possession.
  • The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win.
  • The Giants are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Eagles are 7-1 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Eagles are 7-1 SU in their last eight games vs the Giants.
  • The Eagles are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Eagles' last five games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 54.6)
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Giants' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 39.83)
  • The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Steelers at Bengals
  • The Steelers rank 1st in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Steelers are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games on the road vs the Bengals. The 16 wins came by an average of 10.94 points. They’re also 12-3-1 ATS in these games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Steelers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 59.29)
  • Bengals games this season have had an average combined score of 56.5.
  • The Steelers are 6-0 SU in their last six games vs the Bengals. (Avg winning margin: 7.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bengals' last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bengals are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Steelers are 10-1-1 SU in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
Bears at Dolphins
  • The Dolphins rank 3rd in net yards per play at home. The Bears rank 26th in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Dolphins have won seven straight home games started by Ryan Tannehill.
  • The Bears are averaging just 14.47 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Bears rank second in time of possession. Miami ranks 31st.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Dolphins' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
  • The Bears are allowing a league-low 64 rushing yards per game.
  • The Dolphins are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games after consecutive losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 37.43)
  • The Bears are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
Buccaneers at Falcons
  • The Falcons are averaging 30.25 points per game over their last four games.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high 358 passing yards per game.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last four games. (Avg combined score: 66.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 61.2)
  • The Buccaneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a bye.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Buccaneers' last five games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The Falcons are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home after losing their two most recent home games.
Cardinals at Vikings
  • The Cardinals rank 31st in net yards per play and are averaging just 13 points per game this season.
  • Over their last nine home games, the Vikings are allowing just 14.56 points per game.
  • The Cardinals are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game at 142.4.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Cardinals' last four games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 44.0)
  • The Cardinals are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 14.78)
  • The Vikings are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Vikings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.5)
  • The Cardinals are 1-8 SU in their last nine games after a win.
Chargers at Browns
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chargers' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.88)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Browns' last 16 games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.13)
  • Over his last six games, Philip Rivers has 16 TDs and 2 INTs.
  • The Chargers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs the Browns.
  • The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chargers' last four games vs the Browns. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The Chargers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games on the road after consecutive home games.
Colts at Jets
  • The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Colts are 2-7 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jets rank 32nd in red-zone touchdown percentage. Not good!
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Colts' last eight games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 46.75)
  • The Colts are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Jets' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 47.71)
  • The Colts are 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Panthers at Redskins
  • Over their last three games, the Panthers rank 32nd in net yards per play.
  • Over their last five home games, the Redskins are allowing just 14.8 points per game.
  • The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs the Redskins.
  • The Panthers are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Redskins. (Avg winning margin: 12.6)
  • The Redskins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road after consecutive home games.
  • The Panthers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.6)
Ravens at Titans
  • The Ravens rank 3rd in net yards per play. The Titans rank 25th.
  • Teams playing in the third game of three straight road games since 2000: 34-63 SU (35%), 42-53-2 ATS (44%). The Ravens are in this spot.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Ravens' last 11 games vs the Titans. (Avg combined score: 33.18)
  • The visiting team is 0-3 SU in the last three games in this matchup.
  • The Titans are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.
  • The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Ravens are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
Seahawks at Raiders
  • The Seahawks are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.
  • Seattle ranks first in red-zone TD scoring percentage at 80%.
  • Eleven of the last 16 games in London have gone OVER.
  • The Seahawks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Seahawks' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.67)
  • As a member of the Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch was in the position to score a game-winning, goal-line touchdown in the Super Bowl, but Seattle threw it instead. The pass was intercepted and they lost the Super Bowl.
  • The Raiders are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Raiders' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 43.33)
Rams at Broncos
  • The Broncos are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game at 139.6.
  • The Broncos are 4-13 SU and 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Rams lead the league in net yards per play. The Broncos rank 22nd.
  • The Rams are averaging 33.75 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Broncos are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Rams' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.5)
  • The Rams are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
  • In his last two home games, Case Keenum has thrown 0 TDs and 2 INTs.
Jaguars at Cowboys
  • In games after a loss since the beginning of last season, the Jaguars are allowing an average of just eight points.
  • The Jaguars rank 2nd in net yards per play this season. Over the last three games, the Cowboys rank 23rd.
  • Dak Prescott is averaging just 192.2 passing yards per game this season. The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 191 passing yards per game.
  • Over their last seven games, the Cowboys are averaging just 14.43 points per game.
  • The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 32.78)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Jaguars' last three games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Cowboys are 4-0 SU in their last four games after a loss.
  • The Cowboys rank 29th in red-zone touchdown percentage. The Jaguars rank 30th. This one could be a real field-goal fest!
Bills at Texans
  • The Bills rank last in net yards per play this season.
  • The Texans are averaging just 15.67 points per game over their last three home games.
  • Over his last four games, Deshaun Watson is averaging 361.25 passing yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 31.2)
  • The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Bills are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Texans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Bills' last four games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 40.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 44.86)
Chiefs at Patriots
  • The Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a TNF game.
  • The last four SNF games have gone UNDER and the favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine SNF games.
  • The Chiefs are averaging 35 points per game this season. The Patriots have scored 38 points in each of their last two games.
  • The Patriots are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 16.0)
  • Teams playing in their third consecutive home game have gone 31-16-2 ATS over the past three seasons. This is the Patriots' third straight home game. They're 11-2 SU in their previous 13 games in this spot.
  • The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season with a win margin of 17.6 points.
  • The Patriots are 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games.
  • The Chiefs humiliated the Patriots in New England last season, winning 42-27.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last three games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 57.0)
  • The Chiefs are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs' last 14 games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
  • Each team ranks in the top six in red-zone touchdown percentage.
  • Six of the seven head-to-head games between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid have gone OVER. Belichick is 5-2 SU in those games.
  • In three road games this season, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 11 TDs and 0 INTs with a 130.7 QB rating. Well done!
  • Kansas City is allowing the second-most passing yards per game at 343.
49ers at Packers
  • The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight MNF games and the total has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 MNF games.
  • Over their last three games, the Packers rank 2nd in net yards per play.
  • Over their last three games, the 49ers are allowing 31.67 points per game.
  • The Packers are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.
  • The Packers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of more than 7 points.
  • The Packers are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game at 208.8
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 45.83)
  • The total has gone OVER in the 49ers' last four games. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the 49ers' last eight games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 50.75)
  • The 49ers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs the Packers.
  • The 49ers are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs teams with losing records.

 

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