Another week, another 3-3 result. Some of the NFL bets I nailed felt like it was obvious from the beginning whereas some games had such random results that I had to do a double-take on the score (looking at you, Cowboys).
That being said, the slate for Week 7 in the NFL is looking primed for potential earnings and there is still a long way to go on the season. And remember, the key to sports betting is a short-term memory.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 7!
All odds courtesy of Sportsbook as of Thursday, October 18.
The Pick: Bears +3.5 vs the Patriots
Call this a gut instinct but I think the Bears defense will be dominant against the Pats. When the Patriots faced the Jags on the road in Week 2, they were completely outmuscled and had to play catch-up the entire game. The Chicago pass rush will be the best defense the Patriots have faced all season (sorry, Jags) and is third in turnover differential in the NFL. Mitch Trubisky may not be the stud quarterback the Bears fan base wants but he should be able to shred a defense that is allowing 24.7 points per game. Bears to cover!
The Pick: Chiefs -6 vs the Bengals
I know the rub on the Chiefs will be that their defense got burned for over 40 points by the Patriots but comparing the Pats to the Bengals will not be done in this column. The Bengals have some decent offensive weapons but they can’t possibly keep up with KC offensively considering the Chefs average 35.8 points per game and the Bengals have allowed 303 yards passing per game (ranked 27th). The Chiefs’ five wins this season have come by an average of 9.2 points and they’ve won their two home games by an average of 13.5 points.
The Pick: OVER 45 Eagles vs Panthers
A pick against the trends, I like the OVER mainly because I think Philly’s offense is starting to hit its stride. The Eagles dropped 34 points on the Giants at MetLife Stadium and a lot of their key pieces like Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery and Darren Sproles are getting healthier, which makes them super dangerous offensively. When these teams met last year, the total combined to 51 points in an Eagles victory. I expect a similar result and think the Panthers will get rolled but will put up more points than they did in Washington in Week 6.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 vs Saints
I almost made this a stay-away because both of these teams have burned me this season (the Ravens’ loss to the Browns was a disaster) but I think the Ravens win this game by a field goal. The Ravens are 2-0 SU and ATS in their two home games this season and while I think the Saints are much improved, they still went 1-4 ATS in five road games last season against teams with winning records. Ravens win a close one on a last-second field goal by Justin “Mother” Tucker.
The Pick: OVER 41.5 Cowboys vs Redskins
Five straight. That’s how many games the OVER has hit in between these divisional rivals and the average closing total was 47 points in those games so the 41.5 seems low. The Cowboys shocked everyone when they dropped 40 points on the Jaguars’ fraud of a defense and while I don’t expect them to reach those heights again this season, 20 to 25 seems doable because I think the Deadskins defense is overrated. Washington can be hit-or-miss with its offensive scheme some weeks but head coach Jay Gruden is very familiar with the Cowboys defense and should be able to exploit it.
The Pick: Falcons -4.5 vs Giants
What a mess the Giants are this year. I’m likely going to fade them in every road game this season if the spread is under 7 points and 4.5 is just right for taking the Falcons. I know ATL gives up a lot of points but no team this season outside of Philly has shown it can stop the Falcons either. The Dirty Birds are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 prime-time games and should put the nail in the coffin on the Giants’ season.
Gilles’ record after six weeks: 17-19
