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Week 7 NFL Betting Picks
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Week 7 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Oct 20, 2018 4:00 PM ET

Everyone loves betting the OVER. It truly is a seductive demon that attracts bettors who are thirsty for offensive shootouts, and with good reason — more points = more entertainment. Just ask anyone who watched Chiefs vs Patriots last Sunday night.

But, let’s get serious, you need more of a strategy than just looking at a number and getting an instinct to bet OVER or UNDER and I have a simple solution that you can apply to your totals betting strategy — average combined scores. Let me emphasize that this should be part of your strategy, not the entirety of it, as many factors need to be considered before placing a bet.

Anyways, what I like to do is look at teams’ average combined scores from the season and compare that number to the total for their upcoming game. Here’s some examples of average combined scores for teams this season:

Highest average combined scores:
  • Chiefs (64.5)
  • Saints (64.0)
  • Buccaneers (62.8)
  • Falcons (59.83)
  • Colts (55.33)

Combined OVER/UNDER record: 21-7!!!

Lowest average combined scores:
  • Titans (32.33)
  • Bills (35.67)
  • Cardinals (36.83)
  • Cowboys (37.67)
  • Ravens (38.33)

Combined OVER/UNDER record: 10-20!!!

So, how can you apply this type of data to Week 7’s games? Specifically, I’m betting UNDER 45.5 for the Chargers vs Titans game, due in part to the Titans having the lowest average combined score in the league at 32.33. I’m also on OVER 50 for the Bucs-Browns game due in part to Tampa’s 62.8 average combined score this season.

You’ll see a few spots like this each week where you can find a disparity in the numbers, so be sure to keep those eyes open! Good luck this week and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Best bets for week 7:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 7 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, October 18:

  • Broncos team total UNDER 21.5
  • Chargers vs Titans UNDER 45.5
  • Chargers -3.5 1st half spread
  • Browns vs Buccaneers OVER 50
  • Lions vs Dolphins OVER 46.5
  • Panthers team total UNDER 20.5
  • Saints +2.5
  • Dolphins +3
  • Jaguars -5
  • Rams -6.5 1st half spread
  • Chiefs -6 (more on this pick here)
  • Jaguars + Rams + Falcons ML Parlay (+148)

Week 7 NFL Betting Stats and Trends:

Broncos at Cardinals
  • The favorite is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 TNF games.
  • The Cardinals are averaging just 13.67 points per game this season. They also rank last in time of possession at 24:11.
  • The Broncos are averaging just 13.67 points over their last three road games. The Cardinals are allowing just 13.4 points over their last five home games.
  • The Broncos are allowing the most rushing yards per game at 161.3. Arizona is allowing the second-most at 151.2.
  • The Broncos are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cardinals' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 34.8)
  • The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Broncos are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on Thursday.
Titans at Chargers
  • The Titans are allowing just 15.75 points per game over their last four games.
  • Titans games this season have had an average combined score of 32.33. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Chargers have a +6.33 first-half point differential. The Titans have a -3.17 first-half point differential.
  • Over their last three games, the Chargers rank fifth in time of possession. The Titans rank 31st over this span.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 17 games played in London.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Titans' last five games. (Avg combined score: 29.4)
  • The Titans are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Chargers.
  • The Chargers rank second in net yards per play this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Titans' last five games vs the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The Chargers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The Titans are 5-1 SU in their last six games after consecutive losses.
Saints at Ravens
  • The Saints are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 60.63)
  • Saints games this season have had an average combined score of 64.5 points.
  • The Saints are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Saints' last four games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 58.5)
  • The Ravens are 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home.
  • The Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
  • The Saints are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game at 71.4, while Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game at 188.
Bills at Colts
  • The Bills are averaging 8.67 points per game over their last three games and rank last in net yards per play this season.
  • The Bills are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games vs the Colts.
  • The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last seven games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 34.14)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Colts' last 15 games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.73)
  • The Colts are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home after consecutive road games.
  • Hey guys, stop making fun of Nathan Peterman. It's cyberbullying!
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bills' last four games. (Avg combined score: 28.25)
Browns at Buccaneers
  • Buccaneers games this season have had an average combined score of 62.8 points.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing the most passing yards per game at 355.6.
  • The Browns are 0-23 SU in their last 23 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.91)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 61.5)
  • The Browns are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Browns' last 17 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.24)
  • The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road after consecutive home games.
Cowboys at Redskins
  • The Cowboys won both games vs Washington last season, beating them 33-19 and 38-14.
  • The Redskins are allowing just 15.17 points per game over their last six home games.
  • Dallas is averaging just 14.33 points per game over their last six road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cowboys' last five games vs the Redskins. (Avg combined score: 53.6)
  • The Cowboys are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Redskins. (Avg winning margin: 11.75)
  • The Redskins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Redskins' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.83)
  • The Redskins are 1-7 SU in their last eight games after a win.
Lions at Dolphins
  • The Dolphins rank 5th in net yards per play at home. The Lions are 25th in net yards per play on the season.
  • The Lions are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games after a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Dolphins' last 15 games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.33)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Lions' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.88)
  • Over their last eight road games, the Lions are allowing an average of 30 points per game.
  • The Dolphins are allowing an average of 31 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Dolphins are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games at home in October.
Panthers at Eagles
  • The Eagles are allowing just 10.88 points per game over their last eight home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Eagles' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 31.13)
  • The Eagles lead the league in time of possession at 33:06.
  • The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in the early afternoon.
  • The Panthers are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Eagles.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last six games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 51.83)
  • The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
  • The Panthers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 8.0)
Patriots at Bears
  • The Bears are allowing an average of just 16.4 points per game over their last 10 games. Over their last three home games, they’re allowing just 10 points per game.
  • The Bears rank 3rd in net yards per play at home. The Patriots rank last in net yards per play on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Patriots' last five games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 50.2)
  • The Patriots are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Bears. (Avg winning margin: 16.0)
  • The Bears are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • The Patriots are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
  • The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Patriots' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 42.2)
Rams at 49ers
  • The 49ers have averaged 30.67 points per game over their last three home games. The Rams are averaging 31.19 points over their last 11 road games.
  • The Rams are rushing for a league-high 154.3 yards per game.
  • The Rams have a +7 first-half point differential. The 49ers have a -5.5 first-half point differential.
  • The Rams lead the league in net yards per play this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Rams' last 11 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 53.45)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Rams' last three games vs the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 56.67)
  • The Rams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs the 49ers.
  • The 49ers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games at home vs teams with winning records.
Texans at Jaguars
  • Jacksonville beat Houston twice last season — 29-7 and 45-7.
  • The Jaguars are allowing just 10.2 points per game over their last five home games.
  • The Jaguars rank 2nd in net yards per play at home.
  • The Jaguars are allowing the fewest passing yards per game at 187.8.
  • The Texans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs the Jaguars.
  • The Texans are 0-3 ATS in their last three games vs the Jaguars.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Texans' last four games vs the Jaguars. (Avg combined score: 43.5)
  • The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Jaguars are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
Vikings at Jets
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Jets' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 51.25)
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Vikings' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.0)
  • The Jets rank last in the league with a 30% red-zone TD scoring percentage. 
  • The Vikings have allowed 31.5 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Jets. (Avg losing margin: 8.2)
  • The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Vikings are 9-2-1 SU in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
Bengals at Chiefs
  • Chiefs games this season have had an average combined score of 64.5, the highest in the NFL. Bengals games have had an average combined score of 55.33, which is the sixth-highest in the league.
  • Over their last three games, the Bengals rank 30th in net yards per play.
  • The Bengals lead the league with a 75% touchdown scoring percentage in the red zone. The Chiefs rank 6th at 69.23%.
  • The Chiefs’ five wins this season have come by an average of 9.2 points and they’ve won their two home games by an average of 13.5 points.
  • The Bengals are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games vs the Chiefs. 
  • The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at night. The Bengals are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 55.71)
  • The favorite is 0-4 ATS in the last four SNF games.
Giants at Falcons
  • The Giants are averaging just 16.33 points per game over their last six road games. The Falcons are averaging 35.67 points per game over their last three home games.
  • The Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games at night.
  • The Giants are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Giants' last 11 games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 36.82)
  • The Giants are 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last five games. (Avg combined score: 65.8)
  • The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their last five games before a bye.
  • The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants' last six games at night.
  • The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine MNF games.

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