The three best words in the English language are needed going into Week 8 of the NFL: Short Term Memory. I got slaughtered on my picks this past week – an ugly 1-5 record, with only the Chiefs preventing me from getting skunked.
Maybe I didn’t go deep enough on the stats and matchups or maybe I was too focused on the NBA and the MLB playoffs but like the great cinematic masterpiece Wedding Crashers says, “Rule No. 76: No excuses, play like a champion.” Unlike some of these hacks online who only post their winners, I’m not afraid to take an L and come back the following week.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 8!
The Pick: Packers vs Rams UNDER 57.5
The marquee game of Week 8, I’m predicting an UNDER in this game. While both teams are scoring a ton of points this season, I sense that the only way this game is going OVER is if the Packers score 21 points or more and they’ve been awful in road games this season. In the Rams’ last 23 games (since the start of last season), the final score has only gone OVER 57 points in six of those games.
The Pick: Saints vs Vikings OVER 52
My man Smokin’ Joe Osborne wrote the betting preview for this game and I couldn’t agree with him more. We both expect a ton of points in this game as the Saints are averaging 35.7 points per game over their last four and the average combined score in all of their games is 61.7. The Vikes defense has been suspect this season and Minny has also picked up the scoring pace by averaging 28.5 points per game this season. Expect a shootout in the Twin Cities.
The Pick: Saints Moneyline over Vikings
A rematch from the NFC playoffs last season, I think the Saints are the second-best team in the NFC this season and should come out on top vs the Vikings. The Saints are riding a five-game win streak coming into this game and pretty much beat the Vikes in last year’s playoffs before allowing one of the flukiest touchdowns in postseason history. Minnesota has had some pretty easy teams these past two weeks and its defense, as mentioned, is not the juggernaut it once was.
The Pick: Eagles Moneyline over Jaguars
The Jaguars are a mess. When your quarterback is announced as the starter but will have “a short leash,” you know the offense has been putrid. The Jags defense is doing everything it can to stay in games but when Blake Bortles continues to fail on third down and throw interceptions, they have no chance to win. Jacksonville has almost no run game to speak of and the one area where you can exploit the Eagles defense (through the air) is no longer a weakness if they’re facing Bortles. The Eagles haven’t been great on the spread lately (1-5 ATS in their last six games) so I like the moneyline odds for the safer pick.
The Pick: Redskins Moneyline vs Giants
Let’s face it. The Giants stink and made the wrong choice by taking Saquon Barkley in the draft instead of a blue-chip quarterback prospect. That’s a debate for another day but what’s not up for debate is how awful Eli Manning is and how his lack of strength to throw the deep ball is killing New York’s offense. The G-Men are 1-6 SU this season and have lost all three of their home games by an average margin of 13.6 points. I’m not a huge fan of the Deadskins but this pick is more an indictment of the Giants.
The Pick: Lions -3 vs Seahawks
The Lions are one of the most frustrating teams for me to bet on because when they’re a favorite, they seem to fall short of covering and when they’re a dog, they come back to bite you and cover the spread in the fourth quarter. Well, this time, I’m overlooking my rule of staying away and backing them on the spread against Seattle. Mainly because I think the Lions have finally figured out their run game with Kerryon Johnson and the Seahawks are allowing an average of 124 rushing yards per game (ranked 26th in the NFL).
Gilles’ record after six weeks: 18-24
