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Week 8: NFL Betting Primer

Thursday Night Football games can often be the trickiest games each week to handicap. Each team is completely thrown out of rhythm by having three fewer days to game-plan and recover from injuries.

As a result, we often see outlier performances, both from a betting perspective and from individual players. And as a result of those outlier performances, we sometimes react by throwing a 35-pound dumbbell through a wall in our apartment, resulting in the loss of our damage deposit ... I’m sure we can all relate.

Anyways, let me get to my TNF betting point before you stop reading and let you know that home teams go on an absolute tear in Thursday Night Football games at this point of the season. Since the start of the 2016 season, home teams are 18-4-3 ATS (81.8%) from Week 8 until the end of the season.

While the trend has become an absolute monster over the last three seasons, home teams have a long-standing history of domination on TNF from Week 8 on, going 47-29-3 ATS over the past 10 seasons. That’s good enough for a 61.8 percent cover rate, and anyone who knows anything about betting will tell you that that’s pretty good over a 10-year sample size.

Since the start of the 2016 season, home teams are 18-4-3 ATS (81.8%) from Week 8 until the end of the season on TNF.

So, what’s the deal?

I think it’s crystal clear that the home team on a short week at this point of the season has a massive advantage. They’re not recovering from injuries in a hotel and the logistics that come along with travel don’t cut into precious game-planning time.

Despite the overwhelming amount of evidence to support home teams on TNF this time of year, we’re not seeing them overvalued by oddsmakers, so it’s probably in your best interest to keep riding this trend until it fizzles out — if that ever happens.

The Sports Betting Equinox

This is it! It’s the time of year when we have a very short window with the four main North American pro sports leagues all going on at the same time, along with a handful of other big sporting events, including the PGA, UFC, EPL Soccer, NASCAR and F1.

So, what’s the best way to maximize our sports viewing experience this weekend? Well, you’re going to need at least two screens. A normal TV and a tablet will suffice. Also, not having any family commitments would be ideal, so consider getting a very short-notice divorce if you’re married, or maybe fake an injury (a shattered pelvis is usually a believable one where you’ll have a valid excuse to be on the couch all weekend).

Also, be sure to hit the store before all the action gets underway for a variety of beverages, snacks and toilet paper. AND, have a clothing rotation of your most comfortable sweats lined up.

We all have different interests, so I won’t tell you how to spend your sports equinox, but here’s my sports viewing agenda for the weekend.

Friday evening:

World Series Game 3

Raptors vs Celtics

Saturday morning:

UFC Fight Night (airs live in the morning with event taking place in Singapore)

Saturday afternoon:

Wisconsin vs Ohio State

Auburn vs LSU

Heat vs Bucks

Saturday evening:

This one will be tricky, but my order of priority is...

World Series Game 4

Penguins vs Stars

Notre Dame vs Michigan

Kings vs Jazz once NHL game wraps up

Sunday afternoon:

RedZone

Tablet will be used to check in on NFL games I’m betting on

Sunday evening:

World Series Game 5

Sunday Night Football

Blazers vs Mavericks at halftime and/or if any of the other games are awful

However you decide to enjoy the sports equinox, and whether you’re betting or not, enjoy the games, good luck and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Redskins-Vikings
  • The Redskins are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 night games.
  • The Vikings are tied for first in net yards per play this season. The Redskins are 27th.
  • The Vikings rank first in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The Redskins rank 27th.
  • The Vikings are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Vikings are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
  • The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last four games. (Avg combined score: 27.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Vikings' last 13 games at night.
Bengals-Rams
  • The favorite is 16-10 ATS all-time in London games.
  • The Bengals rank last in yards per rush attempt. The Rams are third in opponent yards per rush attempt.
  • The Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit favorite.
  • Over their last three games, the Bengals rank 31st in net yards per play.
  • The Bengals are 0-9 SU in their last nine games. (Avg losing margin: 9.22)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.6)
  • The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a double-digit underdog.
Broncos-Colts
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Broncos' last 16 games. (Avg combined score: 37.31)
  • Broncos games have had an average combined score of 35.43 this season.
  • The Broncos are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Broncos are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Colts are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS wins.
Buccaneers-Titans
  • The Titans are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as home favorites.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-17 SU in their last 21 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Buccaneers' last 20 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.55)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Titans' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.71)
  • The Titans are tied for a league-worst first-half spread record of 1-6. The Bucs are at 4-2 ATS.
Cardinals-Saints
  • Over their last three games, Arizona is averaging a league-high 10 penalties per game. New Orleans has the second-fewest during this span.
  • The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS since Drew Brees’ injury.
  • The Saints are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games at home.
  • The Saints are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games before a bye.
  • The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cardinals' last seven games in October.
  • The Cardinals are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Cardinals are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road vs the Saints. (Avg losing margin: 19.75)
Chargers-Bears
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 37.83)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bears' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 33.36)
  • The Bears are 8-3 SU and ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
Eagles-Bills
  • The Eagles are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games after a loss.
  • The Eagles are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 19 of the Bills' last 27 games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.56)
  • The Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.
Giants-Lions
  • The Giants have a league-high 18 turnovers. Detroit is tied for the fourth-fewest with seven.
  • The Giants are tied for fifth in yards per rush attempt. Detroit is 28th in opponent yards per rush attempt.
  • The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Giants' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.0)
  • The Lions are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Lions' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.13)
Panthers-49ers
  • Carolina is averaging a league-best 4.5 sacks per game.
  • The Panthers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The 49ers are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 15.33)
  • The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last six games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The Panthers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs the 49ers.
Raiders-Texans
  • The Texans rank fourth in red-zone TD conversion percentage. The Raiders rank 31st in opponent red-zone TD conversion percentage.
  • Both teams rank in the top four in third-down conversion rate and in the bottom six in opponent third-down conversion rate.
  • The Texans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Raiders are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last four games. (Avg combined score: 53.5)
  • The Texans are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Texans' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.14)
Patriots-Browns
  • The Patriots are allowing 6.38 points per game over their last eight games.
  • The Browns rank 30th in third-down conversion rate. The Patriots are first in opponent third-down conversion rate.
  • The Browns are averaging a league-high 9.5 penalties per game. New England has the eighth-lowest average.
  • New England ranks first in turnover differential. Cleveland ranks 28th.
  • The Patriots are 19-0 SU in their last 19 games at home with an average win margin of 16.7.
  • The Patriots are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Patriots are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 35.88)
  • The Browns are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs the Patriots.
Jets-Jaguars
  • Each team ranks in the bottom six in third-down conversion rate.
  • The Jets are allowing the second-most sacks per game. The Jags are averaging the seventh-most sacks per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Jets' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 37.14)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 30.0)
  • The Jets are averaging 9.4 points over their last five games.
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Jets are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
Seahawks-Falcons
  • The Seahawks are 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.
  • The Falcons have a league-worst first-half point differential of -10.
  • The Seahawks are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Seahawks' last 16 games. (Avg combined score: 52.13)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Seahawks' last eight games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 58.38)
  • The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Falcons' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.57)
Packers-Chiefs
  • As a starter, Matt Moore has a career ATS record of 20-11 (64.5%).
  • The Packers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games at night.
  • The Packers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 19 of the Packers' last 26 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 53.08)
  • Despite being 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games, Green Bay ranks 24th in net yards per play during this span.
  • By all accounts, Matt Moore is a great locker-room guy.
  • The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS win.
Dolphins-Steelers
  • The Dolphins are 0-9 SU in their last nine games. (Avg losing margin: 23.0)
  • The Dolphins are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
  • Pittsburgh ranks second in turnover differential. Miami ranks 32nd.
  • The Steelers have allowed just 16 points per game over their last five home games.
  • The Dolphins are averaging just 10.5 points over their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Dolphins are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Dolphins are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Steelers' last 18 games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.39)