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Week 9: Betting Primer

Barkley Giants NFL Betting

In our never-ending quest to find an edge with betting NFL spreads, I’d like to draw your attention to a trend within a trend.

We all know that road teams have been a monster this season, covering in 61.3 percent of games so far, but within that trend is an even better number, with road teams in divisional games covering at 66 percent.

Going even deeper and finding trends within that trend that’s inside of a trend, here’s a breakdown of road team records by division:

Road team records in divisional games
  • AFC East: 3-1 ATS
  • AFC West: 3-1 ATS
  • AFC North: 2-1-1 ATS
  • AFC South: 1-3 ATS
  • NFC East: 2-3 ATS
  • NFC West 3-0 ATS
  • NFC North: 3-2 ATS
  • NFC South: 2-1 ATS

So, pretty good information here, but what exactly should you do with this road team in divisional games trend? Easy — FADE IT!

Why? Because year after year we see away vs home ATS records in divisional games finish at close to 50 percent, or lower in some cases. Since the start of 2014, road teams have a mini 52.9 percent edge. Here’s the breakdown by season:

  • 2018 ATS: 49-46-1 (51.5%)
  • 2017 ATS: 41-51-4 (44.5%)
  • 2016 ATS: 44-48-4 (47.8%)
  • 2015 ATS: 58-34-4 (63.8%)
  • 2014 ATS: 50-45-1 (52.6%)

We have one outlier in there in the 2015 season, but history tells us this year’s trend is likely to cool off. I don’t recommend blindly fading road teams in divisional games, but perhaps this finding can help you if you’re on the fence with your picks in divisional games.

I’m a Gigantic Idiot

I’m sure many agree with the statement above for a variety of reasons, but I find myself in an awful predicament of having a dentist appointment on Halloween and it’s much too late to cancel. For some reason, I agreed to the date about six months ago, now there’s not a damn thing I can do about it, and I feel awful. This might be the worst moment of my life.

As a result, I’ll be going through the typical charade of brushing and flossing my teeth prior to the appointment, as if that’ll trick them into believing that I maintain a flawless dental hygiene routine.

I do keep up with a routine of brushing at least three times a day and flossing three to five times a week if I can remember, but what’s with this societal hindrance we put on ourselves of needing to impress our dentists? It’s as if they’re paying us, not the other way around, but here we are doing everything in our power to appease them.

IT’S INSANE, but I’m only one man and impacting change has been my greatest challenge! So, here I am again, at the mercy of my dentist, on Halloween of all days.

Anyways, best of luck this week, remember to floss (for yourself, not the dentist) and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

49ers-Cardinals
  • The favorite is 2-7 ATS in the last nine TNF games.
  • Arizona ranks 31st in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The 49ers are second in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The 49ers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 18.57)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the 49ers' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Cardinals' last 11 games vs their division at home.
  • The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Cardinals are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs their division at home.
  • The 49ers are 0-8 SU in their last eight games vs the Cardinals. (Avg losing margin: 10.88)
Texans-Jaguars
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Texans' last three games vs the Jaguars. (Avg combined score: 25.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 31.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Texans are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Texans' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.86)
  • The Texans are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as favorite.
  • The Texans are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games before a bye.
  • The Texans are averaging 33.5 points over their last four games.
  • The Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games vs the Jaguars.
Vikings-Chiefs
  • The Vikings lead the league in net yards per play on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Vikings' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
  • The Vikings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Chiefs' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.2)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last five games in the early afternoon.
Redskins-Bills
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 27.4)
  • The Redskins are averaging 7.2 points over their last five games.
  • The Bills are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The total has gone OVER in 20 of the Bills' last 28 games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.5)
Titans-Panthers
  • The Panthers are averaging a league-high 4.3 sacks per game. The Titans are allowing the third-most sacks per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Titans' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 32.43)
  • The Titans are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Panthers' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 50.7)
  • The Panthers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Titans' last three games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 32.33)
Jets-Dolphins
  • The Jets average the second-most penalties per game. The Dolphins average the second-fewest.
  • The Jets are averaging 10.13 points scored over their last eight games. The Dolphins are averaging 8.6 points over their last five home games.
  • The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Jets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Jets are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Dolphins' last six games. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Dolphins are 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. (Avg losing margin: 22.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Jets' last four games vs the Dolphins. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The Jets are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road vs the Dolphins.
Bears-Eagles
  • The Bears are allowing an average of 14.4 points over their last five road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Bears' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 33.33)
  • The Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Bears are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games as road underdogs.
  • The Eagles are 6-2 SU in their last eight games as favorite.
  • The Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Bears are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Eagles. (Avg losing margin: 21.75)
Colts-Steelers
  • The Colts are 26th in net yards per play this season.
  • The Steelers have allowed 15 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Colts are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Colts' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Steelers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Colts are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
  • The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Colts are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games on the road vs the Steelers.
Lions-Raiders
  • The Raiders haven’t allowed one sack in their last three games. The Lions rank 25th in sacks per game over their last three games.
  • The Raiders rank third in third-down conversion percentage. The Lions ranks 29th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Lions have a league-best 6-1 first-half ATS record.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions' last five games. (Avg combined score: 57.8)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Raiders' last five games. (Avg combined score: 53.0)
  • The Lions are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • The Lions are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the West Coast.
  • The Lions are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the West Coast.
  • The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The Raiders are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Raiders are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after an ATS win.
Buccaneers-Seahawks
  • The Buccaneers are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 16 of the Buccaneers' last 21 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.19)
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Seahawks' last 17 games. (Avg combined score: 51.82)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
  • The Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.
  • The Seahawks are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games when hosting an East Coast team.
Packers-Chargers
  • The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 54.67)
  • The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The Packers are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.33)
  • The Chargers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games vs the Chargers. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
Browns-Broncos
  • The Browns average a league-high 10 penalties per game and are tied for 30th in turnover differential.
  • These teams rank 30th and 29th in third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Broncos are averaging 13.8 points over their last five home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Browns' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Broncos' last 17 games. (Avg combined score: 36.76)
  • The Broncos are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The Browns are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs the Broncos.
Patriots-Ravens
  • The Patriots are allowing a league-low 7.6 points per game and rank first in opponent red-zone TD conversions.
  • The Patriots are tied for first in opponent yards per play. The Ravens are 29th.
  • Ravens games this season have an average combined score of 52.86.
  • The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Patriots are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games. (Avg winning margin: 20.38)
  • The Patriots are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games before a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.5)
  • The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.
  • The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • The Ravens are 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after a bye.
  • The Patriots are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games vs the Ravens.
Cowboys-Giants
  • Dallas leads the NFL in third-down conversion percentage. The Giants rank 21st in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Dallas ranks second in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Cowboys are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 48.3)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Cowboys' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cowboys' last seven games after a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Giants' last 14 games at night.
  • The Cowboys are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Cowboys' last seven games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 39.14)