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Wild Card Weekend Primer

All right, here we go – Wild Card Weekend is here and our volume of betting options shrinks significantly. Although the stakes are higher, only having four games to analyze actually makes my job a lot easier as opposed to the typical deep dive on 16 games, so I love this time of year.

As per usual with a condensed schedule, we’ve got some very sharp lines and some difficult betting decisions to make, but Wild Card Weekend has been a good time to back underdogs and the UNDER in recent years.

Over the last five seasons, we’ve seen underdogs cover at 63.2 percent with the UNDER coming in at 68.4 percent. Going back even further, all the way to 1994, we’ve seen the UNDER come through in 59.2 percent of games.

Over the last five Wild Card Weekends, underdogs are covering at 63.2%, while the UNDER is hitting at 68.4%!

As with any trends, these should simply be used as a consideration with your handicap, because, as we all know, just because it happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen in the future.

If you’re looking for some in-depth analysis for Wild Card Weekend picks, be sure to check out the most recent edition of Guys & Bets where we break down eight different bets for sides, totals, a teaser and some props!

Good luck this weekend, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Wild Card Weekend Stats and Trends

Bills-Texans
  • The Bills rank second in points allowed on the road at 15.6.
  • Over their last three games, the Bills rank 32nd in third-down conversion percentage and Houston ranks 30th.
  • Houston ranks last in opponent red-zone TD scoring percentage, both overall and at home.
  • At home, Deshaun Watson has 14 TDs to 3 INTs compared with 12/9 on the road
  • Over their last three games, the Texans have allowed the most sacks in the NFL. The Bills rank fifth in sacks per game on the road.
  • The Bills are 6-2 SU in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Bills are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Bills' last 15 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.8)
  • The Bills are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Bills are 0-7 SU in their last seven games in the playoffs as underdog.
  • The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in the playoffs as underdog.
  • The Texans are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.
  • The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 39.0) 
Titans-Patriots
  • The Patriots are 20-3 SU at home in the playoffs in the Belichick era (13-9-1 ATS).
  • The Patriots are fourth in time of possession while the Titans are 28th.
  • In six career games in New England, Ryan Tannehill has thrown 5 TDs and 10 INTs.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Titans' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 54.3)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots' last nine games in the playoffs.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Titans' last eight games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on Saturday.
  • The Titans are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
  • The Patriots are 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorites.
  • The Patriots are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games on Saturday.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on Saturday.
  • The Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs.
  • The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs the Patriots.
  • The Titans are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 19.83)
Vikings-Saints
  • At home, the Saints are third in time of possession. The Vikings are 29th on the road.
  • Over the last three games, the Vikings are the least penalized team in the league, while the Saints are averaging the sixth-most penalties.
  • The Saints are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Saints are 13-3 on 6-point teasers this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Vikings' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 45.88)
  • The Vikings are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Vikings are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The Saints are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Saints are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in the playoffs as favorite.
  • The Saints are 6-1 SU in their last seven games in the playoffs as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Vikings' last 11 games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 51.09)
  • The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Saints.
Seahawks-Eagles
  • On the road, the Seahawks are tied for the third-most sacks allowed.
  • Seattle averaged 8.8 penalties per game on the road which is the second-most in the NFL.
  • In three career games vs the Seahawks, Carson Wentz is 0-3 with a 74.4 QB Rating.
  • The Seahawks are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as road favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Seahawks are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the East Coast.
  • The Seahawks are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Seahawks' last 10 games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last seven wild-card games.
  • The Seahawks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games in the playoffs as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Eagles' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.0)
  • The Eagles are 7-19 SU in their last 26 games as home underdogs.
  • The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
  • The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games in the playoffs as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Seahawks' last four games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 34.75)
  • The Seahawks are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Eagles. (Avg winning margin: 12.0)