Four wins is all it'll take for the Edmonton Oilers and apparently all of Canada to celebrate a Stanley Cup victory. So, no pressure McDavid it's just the entire country watching you and every move you make in the Cup finals.
What a game. Time to bring the Cup home. #LetsGoOilers
— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) June 3, 2024
As it stands the Edmonton Oilers are the dogs to win per the Stanley Cup odds board at +110, which isn't a good place to be. Since 2006 the favorites going into the Stanley Cup Finals are 14-4 (78%). So how do they win it?
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | -130 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +110 |
Odds as of June 4
Power Play
The Oilers' power play has been insanely efficient in the regular season scoring on 26.3% of its opportunities and somehow they've found an extra 11% of efficiency through these playoffs with a goal on 37.3% of their power plays.
Edmonton's powerplay failed to score in six of their 18 playoff games. Half of those games resulted in a loss. They need the power play to score to win.
| Player | Power Play Points |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 14 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 14 |
| Evan Bouchard | 12 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 9 |
Keep an eye on power play point player props (say that three times fast) because there's some good value here. For Game 1, the Oilers' four leading power play scorers will get you plus money to at OVER 0.5 points:
- Connor McDavid O0.5 PPP +110
- Leon Draisaitl O0.5 PPP +135
- Evan Bouchard O0.5 PPP +170
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins O0.5 PPP +230
Edmonton will be glad to know that at 51 times, the Florida Panthers have been short-handed the second-most this postseason. Oil Country should get a ton of time on the power play, which should result in some scoring.
Scoring First
Scoring first sounds pretty cliché I know. If you've watched hockey even just once you'll have heard every talking head say that the key to a game is scoring the first goal.
However, the Edmonton Oilers have the most wins after scoring first (10) than any other team in these playoffs. That's 83% of their wins in this Stanley Cup run and a 10-4SU (71%) record when scoring the first goal. If Edmonton doesn't score first they're 2-2SU (50%).
Edmonton also has the most playoff games played where they've scored first (14). With 18 games played in total, the Oilers have scored first in 78% of their games in these playoffs. That's key for us bettors because you can get good odds on Edmonton to score first. It's currently +105 for Game 1.
Stuart Skinner Stopping Pucks
This shouldn't come as a hot take, but a Stanley Cup hopeful needs a good goalie between the pipes. But for Edmonton, they need Skins to stop at least 90% of the pucks he sees.
The Oilers go from a 7-1SU side (80%) to 4-4SU (50%) when Skinner's save percentage falls below 90%. Florida doesn't have that problem, they can live with Bobrovsky having a bad game. It's also worth noting, that Bob has had fewer bad games in these playoffs than Stuart Skinner.
| Goalie | >900 SV% | <900SV% |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner (Edmonton) | 7-1 (80%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) | 8-2 (80%) | 4-3 (57%) |
| Jake Oettinger (Dallas) | 10-3 (77%) | 0-6 (0%) |
| Igor Shesterkin (New York) | 7-4 (64%) | 3-2 (60%) |
Only the Dallas Stars have a worse SU record when their starting goalie stops less than 90% of the puck. And well, as the Oilers should be clearly aware of, the Stars aren't in the playoffs anymore.
A Stanley Cup championship rests on the shoulders of Stuart Skinner, even if he'll never win the Conn Smythe trophy should Edmonton make the Canadian Prime Minister and I guess all of Canada.
