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Can Leafs climb out of 2-0 hole at home vs Bruins?

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home down two games to none vs the Boston Bruins and will try to get back in their first-round series. The Leafs were dominated in both games, being outscored 12-4, and will need a strong showing at the Air Canada Centre tonight to reignite their chances of getting by Boston. The Leafs opened as -110 favorites to hold home serve.

SHARK BITES
  • The Bruins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Bruins are 20-6 SU in their last 26 games with one day off between games.
  • The Maple Leafs are 2-5 SU in their last seven games in the playoffs at home.

While Toronto was pounded in Game 1, Leafs Nation did not expect goaltender Frederik Andersen to allow three goals on five shots in Game 2. The offensive explosion by the Bruins in the first period chased Andersen to the showers and put the Leafs in too large of a hole to climb out of. Backup Curtis McElhinney didn’t fare much better, allowing four goals on 23 shots, and Toronto backers must be shocked that a perceived position of power was exploited so easily through two games.

Luckily for the Leafs, it’s a best-of-seven series and they get to return to their barn, where they’re 16-2 SU in their last 18 games. Toronto as a favorite was also pretty decent this season at 38-16 SU and has won four straight at home when hosting Boston, outscoring the Bruins 15-8 in those contests.

The Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak has dominated this series thus far with Pastrnak notching three goals and six points in Game 2 alone. But Boston has been a mixed bag on the road this season, dropping four of its last five away games, and finished 21-20 SU this season. The Bruins have a big drop-off in scoring when away from TD Garden as they rank third in goals per game at home (3.59) but drop to 12th in scoring on the road (2.93).

But defensively, Boston has been solid no matter where the game is, allowing only 2.57 goals per contest this season (ranked fourth), and goaltender Tuukka Rask has been solid in this series as he has only let in four goals through two games on 50 shots from the Leafs.

The total opened at 5.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The total has gone OVER in both games of this series and the OVER has hit in six of the Leafs’ last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Toronto Maple Leafs were listed earlier today as -121 moneyline favorites at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark (including Bovada), while oddsmakers set the opening betting total around 5.5.

OddsShark prediction models pick the Bruins to win this game 3.1-2.7. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Boston Bruins will look to vanquish their hosts on Monday, as they are 52-20-12 this season, while the Maple Leafs are 49-28-7. Boston is 37-42-5 against the total, while Toronto is 42-35-7 versus the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Toronto vs Boston injuries news.

This game puts the Maple Leafs, most recently No. 1 in the OddsShark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Bruins, who rate a No. 2 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Toronto's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 3.35 goals per game, against a Bruins defense that ranks No. 3 at 2.6 goals allowed. The Maple Leafs power play is averaging 24.57% while the Bruins defense kills off 83.79% of their penalties.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

 

Betting Trends
  • Boston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
  • Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games on the road
  • Toronto is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of Toronto's last 22 games
  • Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Boston at Toronto, Thursday, April 19

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