It’s the marquee matchup in the NHL tonight as the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Boston Bruins. There is no love lost between these divisional rivals as their history is well documented in the postseason with the Bruins ultimately ending up on top. But the Leafs have fared well when hosting Boston during the regular season by winning the last four games in Toronto dating back to March 2016.
The Leafs opened as -145 favorites with a total of 6.5.
- The Bruins are 1-7 SU in their last 8 road games vs the Leafs.
- The Leafs are second in the NHL in goals per game (3.63).
- The OVER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup (average combined score: 8.0).
Leafs Have Buried The Bruins When Playing in T.Dot
The growing optimism amongst Leafs nation cannot be stopped these days with Toronto tied for second in the Eastern Conference while also ranking second in goals per game. The Big Three of John Tavares, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been dominant this season, combining for 66 goals and 81 assists with Tavares projected to top his career high of 39 markers.
The one factor that nags at me about the Leafs is how their scoring drops a little when playing in front of the home crowd. Their overall goals per game average is 3.63 but when playing at Scotiabank Arena, that figure dips to 3.27 and their ranking falls to 12th in the league. That being said, their defense is much improved in T.Dot as they rank sixth in goals allowed per game at 2.55 and they haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than four goals in a home game since the second game of the season.
As for the Bruins, they’ve been on a nice tear over the last five weeks by going 11-5 SU in 16 games and the return of Patrice Bergeron to the top line cannot be overstated for why the B’s have success. The 33-year-old has 38 points in 28 games and since he returned to the lineup, Boston is 6-3 SU in nine games.
However, that success may not carry over past the Canadian border because the Bruins have been a losing wager when taking the ice in Toronto. Boston is 1-7 SU in the last eight games in The Six (including playoffs) and hasn’t won in Toronto during the regular season since March 2016.
Goaltender Matchup
Michael Hutchinson is the Leafs projected starter in net and in four starts in January, he runs hot and cold. In his two wins, he shut out the Canucks and held the Devils to two goals while the other two games, he allowed four goals each time and the Leafs’ high-powered offense couldn’t bail him out.
On the Bruins’ side, Tuukka Rask is expected to get the call and the Bruins have won his last four starts. Rask held teams to five total goals in those contests and he produced a .951 save percentage on 122 shots. In his career against Toronto, he owns 2.14 goals-against average, a .925 save percentage and Boston is 16-9 SU in 25 starts.
My Pick Is…
If this was a playoff series, I would bank on the Bruins but I can’t overlook the Leafs’ recent success over Boston when playing at home. I’m banking on Hutchinson and the Leafs to get the W so I would endorse them on the -1.5 puckline which is hovering around +190.
