Picking up right where they left off after hoisting the Stanley Cup last June, the Washington Capitals aim to win their fifth game in a row when they host the Buffalo Sabres. The Caps are on a tear right now, winning 11 of their last 13 games and four of their last five games at home. Usually a basement dweller, the Sabres are third in the Eastern Conference standings but haven’t won at Capital One Arena in their last five tries.
The Capitals opened as -230 favorites with a total of 6.5.
- The Capitals are second in the NHL in goals scored per game (3.74).
- The Sabres are 12-4 ATS in 16 road games this season.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the Capitals’ last 7 games (Average combined score: 8.1 goals per game).
Sabres vs Capitals Game Center
When Capitals’ Offense Is Clicking, They’re Tough to Beat
28 goals. That’s how many Alex Ovechkin has through 31 games and while it’s not a shocker to see the Great 8 find the back of the net, his current scoring pace has pushed the Capitals to second in the league in goals per game. To put his pace in perspective, only two other players on the Caps have double-digit goals and Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie each have 10. So yeah, not exactly a hot take to say Ovi is amazing.
But the Capitals defense hasn’t been as strong this season compared to last year during their Cup run and starting goaltender Braden Holtby hasn’t been setting the world on fire with his play. Holtby has started five games this month and owns a 3.40 goals-against-average with a .882 save percentage. To be fair, one of those games was a shutout vs the Blue Jackets and it would be criminal to overlook his ability to stop the puck considering how much they relied on him to win their first Stanley Cup.
I like the Capitals to win this game and while the moneyline may be the safe play, it may be also the smart play because the Caps are 7-8 ATS in 15 home games against the puckline and this Sabres squad isn't the dumpster fire it used to be.
Sabres Have Been A Sneaky Puckline Wager
Speaking of pucklines, it’s Buffalo that has rewarded bettors this season with that wager. The Sabres are an excellent 12-4 ATS in 16 road games this season and have shown that they can keep up with the big boys in the Eastern Conference as evidenced by their place in the standings.
The top line of Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner and Sam Reinhart are leading the way for this squad and this trio has combined for 98 points so far with Skinner regaining his goal scoring form with 22 markers in 32 games.
Goaltender Carter Hutton may be the biggest reason for Buffalo’s resurgence as the sixth year netminder has 2.13 goals-against average in his last 13 starts with a .925 save percentage. He's only allowed three or more goals in three of his last 13 starts. Hutton missed a few starts while dealing with injury and in his last outing on Thursday vs the Coyotes, he only allowed one goal on 26 shots.
Goals Aplenty Expected In This Tilt
The total opened at 6.5 and the trends are pointing to a huge OVER based on how the Capitals have played lately. The OVER has hit in six of their last seven games with an average combined score of 8.1 goals per game. The Caps score a ton and have been giving up a ton so when they’re involved, it’s hard to take an UNDER.
My Pick Is…
To take Buffalo’s +1.5 puckline. Their defense has improved drastically compared to previous years and they tend to keep games close even when they lose. I think the Capitals give up too many goals to be favored by this much and if they continue to lean on Ovechkin to bail them out in the scoring department, that can be a recipe for disaster if he’s having an off night, which I’m banking on.
