The Calgary Flames are wrapping up their three-game road swing through California as they play the second in back-to-back nights when they head to the SAP Center to visit the San Jose Sharks. Last year, the Sharks swept the four-game season series against the Flames for the first time in franchise history and are a -180 favorite tonight with Calgary coming back at +150 and the total Sportsbook at 5.5 goals.
- Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last six games.
- San Jose is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of Calgary’s last 10 road games.
Calgary eyes division lead
The Flames have been on a tear over the last two weeks, claiming victory in five of the last six games, including a four-game winning streak that was snapped on Wednesday night. Calgary has been on the road for four of these six games during its hot play and is just one point behind Vancouver for the Pacific Division lead. The Flames have been playing with great speed and tenacity, outshooting their opponents by an average of 4.9 shots per game while drawing the second-most penalties in the league. Their ability to get their opponents in penalty trouble could be a key factor tonight as the Sharks have been shorthanded 57 times which is ninth-most in the NHL.
Mike Smith will be between the pipes once again for the Flames, still trying to find his former self. The 36-year-old is having his worst statistical season thus far, holding a 3.66 goals against average (his highest ever), a .872 save percentage (his lowest ever) and is just 5-5-1 on the year. Smith will have to be on his A-game tonight as the Shark fire the second-most shots at their opponents in the league this year, averaging 36.5 shots per game.
San Jose looks to get back in the win column
The Sharks are on a win-two, lose-two streak recently and are coming off back-to-back road losses to Dallas 4-3 and the other to St. Louis 4-0. As mentioned above, San Jose is firing a ton of shots towards the opposing goal, but are averaging just 3.12 goals per game which ranks in the middle of the pack in the NHL. The Sharks have found themselves in penalty trouble quite a bit as well, being shorthanded 57 times this year, but they have the second-best penalty-killing percentage at 87.7, allowing just seven Sportsbook goals against.
Martin Jones is expected to be the starter tonight, with Aaron Dell controlling the blue ice on Friday. The 28-year-old has been fairly solid deflecting pucks this season, posting a 7-4-1 record with a good 2.84 goals against average and a middling .893 save percentage. The Canadian has allowed three or more goals in nine of his 12 starts this season, including his last six in a row. The defense has played pretty solid in front of him, though, as the Sharks are allowing an average of just 28.2 shots per game against which is the third-fewest in the league.
Is the UNDER the smart bet?
There are trends pointing in both directions for the OVER and UNDER and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 5.5 goals. San Jose has gone OVER in seven of its last nine games with an average combined score of 6.66, but Calgary has gone UNDER in eight of its 10 road games this season with an average combined score of 4.6. Last season, two of their meetings went OVER 5.5 goals, and two games went UNDER 5.5 goals. I would stay away from the total, but if I was forced to lean one way or another I’d go with the OVER, Smith has been underperforming and San Jose takes a lot of penalties that Calgary might be able to take advantage of.
My take on Calgary vs San Jose
I like Calgary on the +1.5 puckline. The Flames are rolling recently, going 5-1 SU in their last six games, including 3-1 SU on the road, while the Sharks have dropped four of their last six games, including their last two in a row. Calgary allows the second-fewest goals per game on the road at just 2.10. Not sure if they can pull out the victory in this contest just with the volatility of Mike Smith, but I think they can keep it close, especially with the potential division lead at stake.
