With the NHL Playoffs about to begin with picks and odds slowly locking in, here's an early glance at the Conn Smythe contenders.
Though Edmonton has yet to make it past the Conference Finals in the last decade, Connor McDavid is the slight favorite to add his first Conn Smythe trophy to his collection.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid (Edmonton) | +1000 |
| Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado) | +1200 |
| Jake Guentzel (Carolina) | +1600 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) | +1600 |
| Frederik Andersen (Carolina) | +1600 |
| Sebastian Aho (Carolina) | +1600 |
| David Pastrnak (Boston) | +1600 |
| Artemi Panarin (NY Rangers) | +1800 |
| Aleksander Barkov (Florida) | +1800 |
| Cale Makar (Colorado) | +1800 |
| Jake Oettinger (Dallas) | +2000 |
| Matthew Tkachuk (Florida) | +2000 |
| Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) | +2000 |
| Auston Matthews (Toronto) | +2200 |
| Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) | +2200 |
| Jason Robertson (Dallas) | +2500 |
| Adam Fox (NY Rangers) | +2500 |
| Jack Eichel (Vegas) | +2500 |
| Roope Hintz (Dallas) | +2800 |
| Mikko Rantanen (Colorado) | +2800 |
| Joe Pavelski (Dallas) | +3000 |
| Jeremy Swayman (Boston) | +3000 |
| Linus Ullmark (Boston) | +3000 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) | +3000 |
Odds as of April 18
2024 Conn smythe early oddsboard recap
Of course, until the NHL postseason plays out, there's not much to go off of. But, let's dissect what we have.
Connor McDavid (+1000)
With McDavid's 132 points that features an unfathomable 100 assists, his reputation for being the league's best player will always nudge him as an early contender.
But again, Edmonton hasn't made it to the Stanley Cup final since 2006. McDavid hasn't even gotten a sniff at the Conn Smythe. Don't worry, he can hug his collection of Rocket Richard, Art Ross and Hart trophies to comfort him.
Nathan MacKinnon (+1200)
Where there's talks of McDavid, MacKinnon's name is bound to follow. Another player who looks unreal on the ice while weaving through the ice and snapping precise shots.
Nathan MacKinnon just activated DRS. 💨
— NHL (@NHL) April 10, 2024
📺: @espn ➡️ https://t.co/FmPv8M6v1l pic.twitter.com/nFYA3bhPH3
He is having a career season, eclipsing the 50-goal mark and demolishing his previous best with 138 points. After lifting the Cup in 2022, the Canadian was a +200 runner-up for the Conn Smythe, which was awarded to Cale Makar instead.
According to our NHL playoff series prices, oddsmakers are giving his Avalanche -135 odds to defeat the Jets in the first round.
Conn Smythe Trophy Betting
If you think regular futures betting is tough, try selecting not only the winning team but the highest-performing player from that roster. It may seem as simple as selecting the team's best player, but the problem is that Stanley Cup-caliber squads have multiple best players.
| Year | Winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jonathan Marchessault (RW) | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 2022 | Cale Makar (D) | Colorado Avalanche |
| 2021 | Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2020 | Victor Hedman (D) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2019 | Ryan O’Reilly (C) | St. Louis Blues |
| 2018 | Alexander Ovechkin (LW) | Washington Capitals |
| 2017 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2016 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2015 | Duncan Keith (D) | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 2014 | Justin Williams (RW) | Los Angeles Kings |
Colorado forwards Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen can be the best player on the ice on any given night, and the same goes for Tampa Bay stars Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. The problem is that they have teammates that are just as good. Even if you have a strong feeling about your Stanley Cup pick, stick to that market until the playoff narratives develop.
The area where you can truly find value in Conn Smythe betting is during the final round. Last year, Marchessault entered Game 4 as a -140 favorite to win the award. While he had just one assist that night, he moved to -500 to capture the award heading into Game 5.
A pre-Game 4 bet was essentially a bet on Vegas to win the series (which was -275), barring any other heroic performances, at a discount.
Conn Smythe: Little Love For Losers
A Stanley Cup Final loser has won the Conn Smythe only five times – and not since 2003 when Mighty Ducks of Anaheim netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it by posting a stellar .945 SV% and 1.62 goals-against average with five shutouts in 21 games.
The five Final losers to win the Conn Smythe:
- 1966 - Roger Crozier (Detroit Red Wings)
- 1968 - Glenn Hall (St. Louis Blues)
- 1976 - Reggie Leach (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 1987 - Ron Hextall (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 2003 - Jean-Sebastien Giguere (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
