Connor McDavid Suspended For Three Games: Oilers Betting Stats Without Their Superstar

As a consequence of Connor McDavid trying to re-align Connor Garland's smile with a crosscheck to the face, the Edmonton Oilers superstar has been suspended by the league for three games. It's a rightful punishment for a shameful act born out of pure frustration by the game's biggest name. 

The suspension means McDavid will miss the first three games of the Oilers' six-game home stand, so as McDavid takes his punishment and hopefully learns to control his frustrations we can learn how to bet on, or more aptly, against the Oilers in McDavid's absence.

How To Bet on The Edmonton Oilers Without Connor McDavid

It's not earth-shattering news, but the Edmonton Oilers aren't good without the best player on the planet, winning only 43% of their games. Betting on the Oilers' opponent's moneyline every time they're without McDavid would have netted you a cool $542 in profits.

That 43% win percentage is even worse when you look at the Oilers' last 15 games without No.97 going 4-11SU (27%) and scoring a measly 2.3 goals per game but allowing 3.3. Yikes! That lack of depth to push up and fill the void in McDavid's absence is killing the Oilers. Avoid the Oilers on the moneyline during this three-game suspension. Betting on the UNDER when McDavid isn't in the lineup is a better play.

As the chart above shows, the Oilers are 35-16-6 against the UNDER for a 69% efficiency I can also tell you that betting on the UNDER has generated a whopping $1,410 in profits. It is easy to see why, McDavid has averaged 1.5 points per game in his career, and as we'll see later how his teammates don't exactly step up when he's missing, meaning Davo does it alone most nights. 

McDavid's absence is perhaps the most felt on the Oilers' power play where he's their most utilized forward. When he's gone Edmonton's man advantage drops from an elite 25% efficiency to a pathetic 15%. That 10% cooldown on the Oilers' power play without McDavid is a big reason why the total goes UNDER 69% of the time with it scoring the third most PP goals since McDavid entered the league with 526 goals.

Betting against the Oilers and for the UNDER to hit when McDavid is out of the lineup makes a lot of sense and is very profitable.

Side note for a good bet; Edmonton takes on Washington tonight which holds the third-best penalty kill in the league at 84.2% and hasn't allowed a goal while on the PK in its last three games. Getting UNDER 0.5 PP points for Leon Draisaitl at -175 odds is a great bet.

Oilers Players Not Filling The McDavid Void

Naturally, with such an important player out of the lineup, someone has to step up and take his place. Edmonton has already been without McDavid a few times this year, though through injury and not suspension, so we've got some data to see how these Oilers adapt to life without their captain. 

Looking at the three likeliest sources, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman, the Oilers don't get more out of their offensive leaders when they need them the most.

Read data as: (with McDavid)-(without McDavid)

You'll notice that Draisiaitl and Hyman's goal-scoring rates as well as Hyman's points rate go up slightly when McDavid has missed this season but every other stat is down compared to when McDavid is around.

Specifically in the shot department. Look at Draisiatil who averages just over three shots a game to averaging 1.5 shots when McDavid is out. Clearly, the German has to pivot his game from being primarily a goal-scorer where teammates give him the puck to becoming a playmaker and giving the puck to his teammates. It results in fewer looks for Draisailt and is probably a good reason to bet the UNDER on his shot prop.

Heck, bet the UNDER on any Oilers' player props when Connor McDavid is out.