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Impotent Offense, Strong Defense Point to UNDER in Wings-Stars

Jakub Vrana and the Detroit Red Wings are big moneyline underdogs in NHL odds going into the opener of a four-game set against the Dallas Stars.

The Detroit Red Wings take on the Dallas Stars for the fifth time this season on Monday night in the first of a four-game series. The Stars have won three of the four meetings this season while outscoring the Red Wings 14-7.

Detroit Red Wings vs Dallas Stars
  • Date/Time: April 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Arena: American Airlines Center
  • TV Coverage: NBCS
  • Opening Odds: Stars -210 | O/U 5.5 (Line History)
  • Red Wings vs Stars Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The game opened with the Stars as big favorites at -210 and the line has moved further in their favor into the -210 to -235 range. The total opened at 5.5 with the UNDER favored in the -130 to -149 range.

Detroit News & Notes

It has been a rough season for the Red Wings, who sit last in the Central Division despite playing surprisingly good hockey of late. The Red Wings are 4-4-2 in their last 10, including wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay. But the underlying numbers tell a different story about the season.

Only Vancouver (in eight fewer games) and Buffalo have less even-strength goals than the Wings. They also have the fourth-fewest expected goals for and a bottom-10 expected goals for percentage. The team is also bottom-10 in high-danger chances at even strength and overall scoring chances at even strength and gets outshot by the second-worst rate in the league.

The offensive talent simply is not there for the Red Wings, who have only three players with 10 or more goals. Detroit’s leading goal scorer, Jakub Vrana with 12, just joined the team at the trade deadline and has only played two games as a Red Wing.

Dallas News & Notes

The Stars were in the Cup final a year ago and were expected to be a legitimate contender this season, but instead find themselves in sixth place in the Central. They do, however, have three games in hand on the fourth-place Predators and only trail by three points.

The numbers are good. No team has allowed fewer than Dallas’ 61 even-strength goals allowed and the team is eighth in goals for percentage at even strength and seventh in expected goals for percentage. The Stars are also 12th in high-danger chances this season while allowing the third-fewest high-danger chances.

Injuries have played a major role in the team’s season as well as star center Tyler Seguin has not played this season and winger Alex Radulov has been held to 12 games. In their place, rookie Jason Robertson has had a breakout season and ranks third on the team in scoring with 32 points in 38 games.

Betting Pick: UNDER 5.5

Though we believe the Stars will win this game, paying -235 is too rich. The better bet here is to pay the -140 or so for the UNDER. One team can’t score and the other is maybe the best in the NHL at preventing goals. That is a winning recipe.

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Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit’s last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games vs Detroit.
  • Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games vs Detroit.