Betting totals can be a frustrating endeavor – especially in hockey. Say you take an UNDER 5, for example, and the game is 2-1 heading into its last couple of minutes. You'll cash that bet, right? Wrong. The team up by a goal suddenly pops two empty-netters, you lose all your action and are forced to settle with a push – ugh.
This is something that’s been happening with extraordinary regularity this season and the overall OVER/UNDER record for games that have closed with a total of 5.0 is 53-55-51. That’s right, 51 pushes. I first noticed this trend when the Anaheim Ducks went on a seven-game O/U push streak that only recently ended. Losing your action on a bet is a serious buzz kill and it may make you feel like avoiding totals of 5.0 altogether. That, however, does not have to be the case as there’s actually an elegant solution to fixing this problem – and it’s not making the nets bigger.
Buy some points
Sounds like a scam, right? Well, it’s not. Betting the UNDER in games with a total of 5.0 has cashed action for you in just 34.6 percent of games – if you’d bet the UNDER in every game with a total of 5.0 this season. BUT, if you’d simply bought an extra half a goal in those games, and teased the total up to 5.5, you’d have cashed 66.7 percent of your UNDER bets – an increase of 32.1 percent.
This trick also works for the OVER as it would’ve hit in 65.4 percent of games with a total of 5.0 if you’d teased the goal total DOWN to 4.5.
| Totals | Teased to 4.5 | 5 | Teased to 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNDER | / | 32.1 | 66.7 |
| OVER | 65.4 | 33.1 | / |
There is a definite caveat to this trick and it’s that you lose a little value on your bet when you tease goal totals. With this trend, though, it’s absolutely worth it. Here’s the four-step process to make money teasing goal totals:
Step 1: Find a game with a betting total of 5.
Step 2: Make an informed decision whether or not you want to take the OVER or the UNDER by analyzing the trends, looking at how the teams match up against one another and – most importantly – who’s minding the net.
Step 3: Buy your points. This is the most important step because it may not be worth your while if the price of the teaser is too expensive. The main rule here is (obviously), the lower the price, the better the bet. For example, if you’d bet the OVER in every game with a total of 5.0 this season you'd have lost $908.83 – yikes. If you’d bought a half a goal in those games, and teased them down to 4.5 at a -185 price tag, however, you’d have made $121.62 in profit. Even if you had to settle for a -200 price for the teaser, you’d still have lost just $300.
When using this trick for the UNDER, watch your spots as it’s not more profitable than taking the traditional UNDER when the price is -190 or worse. If it’s -185 or lower, however, hammer it.
Step 4: Laugh all the way to your financial institution of choice or bitcoin provider.
*The OVER/UNDER record for games with a closing total of 5.5 is 78-104.
All numbers in this article were retrieved on November 30, 2016.
