McDavid Should Win Conn Smythe

McDavid Should Win Conn Smythe Even If Oilers Lose

Stop me if you've heard this before, Connor McDavid is a special player. With four points in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals, he now has 13 in the championship series and 42 through the playoffs. 

He's so much better than the field that he should be given the Conn Smythe Trophy whether his Edmonton Oilers win the Cup or not.

Conn Smythe Odds Board

Let's have a quick look at the Conn Smythe field to see who sportsbooks believe has the best shot at winning the trophy.

Conn Smythe Trophy Odds
PlayerOdds
Connor McDavid-150
Aleksander Barkov+230
Sergei Bobrovsky+550
Matthew Tkachuk+5000
Evan Bouchard+20000

Odds as of June 19

The favorite is rightfully McDavid. He leads all players for scoring in these playoffs by a healthy margin. He's 10 points clear of the field and 20 points clear of anyone wearing a Florida Panthers sweater.

With eight goals and 34 assists, his 42 points are good for an average of 1.8 per game. A ridiculous scoring rate that we've only seen two other times since 1992. That was McDavid and Draisaitl in 20-21 with 2.06 and 2.00 points per game, respectively.

If the Oilers complete the unlikely comeback and hoist the Stanley Cup, McDavid is the easy favorite to win playoff MVP.

What If They Lose?

Edmonton might have won two games in a row, but their backs are still up against the wall. And the trends are very much against them:

  • Since 2007, 10 teams had a 3-1 series advantage in the finals. All 10 won the Cup.
  • Eight teams have lost the finals and return the next year. All eight won the Cup.

Losing these finals is a very real possibility for Edmonton. And as you all know, the Conn Smythe has an unofficial prerequisite; winning the Stanley Cup. 

Since the Conn Smythe was first awarded in 1965 only five players from a losing team have claimed it. That's 91% of winners coming from the championship team. If Edmonton doesn't win the Cup, McDavid might not get the Conn Smythe.

Conn Smythe Winners From Losing Teams
Player (Team)PositionYear 
Roger Crozier (Detroit)Goalie1966
Glenn Hall (St. Louis)Goalie1968
Reggie Leach (Philadelphia)Right Wing1976
Ron Hextall (Philadelphia)Goalie1987
Jean-Sebastien Giguere (Anaheim)Goalie2003

 

Poor Field Of Candidates

But look, it would make no sense to hand the Conn Smythe to anyone other than McDavid. Let's consider the three top options for Florida: Barkov, Bobrovsky, and Tkachuk.

I get that Wayne Gretzky believes Sasha Barkov is the best defensive forward since New York Islanders legend Bryan Trottier but the Panthers would rather play Sam Bennett against McDavid than expose Barkov to the Oilers phenom. The Cats captain is also a combined -4 in the last two games. Not a great claim for top the defensive forward, eh?

Bobrovsky has been horrendous in the last three games with a 0.838% save percentage and vomit-inducing 5.05 GAA. Even a Cup-clinching shutout wouldn't be enough to overcome those disgusting numbers.

Even oddsmakers know Tkachuk is a longshot with his 22 points in these playoffs. Remember he's gone pointless in six of his last eight games. That is not MVP form.

McDavid is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe and he should be given the trophy regardless of who hoists the Stanley Cup. He is the most valuable player for his team and in these playoffs.

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