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Lightning and Wild Goalies Forcing Games to go UNDER

One of the low-key best matchups on the NHL schedule in the last few weeks is tonight’s that features the Central-leading Wild taking on the surging Lightning in Tampa Bay. Both teams have won five of their last eight games and both teams’ starting goalies have been standing on their heads. Pardon the pun but tonight should be absolutely electric.

  • The Wild are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Wild's last 10 games against the Lightning.
  • Devan Dubnyk has a .951 save percentage in 3 starts this month.

Since taking the starting job in Tampa, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been one of the best goalies in the NHL, posting a .948 save percentage in three March starts. In the Lightning’s first meeting with the Wild back in February, the 22-year-old Russian backstop made 37 saves on 38 Minnesota shots but was ultimately solved in a shootout loss. If he and Devan Dubnyk are once again sharp tonight, we should have another goaltenders’ duel on our hands.

Before their last three contests, which have all gone UNDER, the Wild were becoming one of the best OVER teams in the league. They have, however, tightened things up at the back end while lowering their production in their opponent’s zone. Bruce Boudreau’s game plan has been about controlled puck possession that leads to quality scoring chances and that’s translated into the second-highest PDO in the league.

The only goalie hotter than the two who will start tonight is Sergei Bobrovsky so I’ll happily take the UNDER 5.5 in a game that offers little value on either side.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

NHL Hockey odds makers at Bovada had the Tampa Bay Lightning as 104 moneyline underdogs in this betting matchup. Those over under betting saw the line open at 5.5 at BetOnline.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 2.9-2.6 win for the Lightning. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

This season the Tampa Bay Lightning are 30-26-9 overall while the Minnesota Wild are 42-16-6. As for the totals, Tampa Bay is 30-28-7 on the OU, and Minnesota is 32-24-8. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Tampa Bay vs Minnesota injuries news.

The Wild - Lightning odds would favor the Wild if the lines were set according to our power ranks. Tampa Bay is rated No. 13 in the current Odds Shark poll, while Minnesota is at No. 7.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Tampa Bay's No. 16-ranked offense, averaging 2.75 goals per game, against a Wild defense that ranks No. 4 at 2.36 goals allowed. The Lightning power play is averaging 21.93% while the Wild defense kills off 84.34% of their penalties.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Minnesota was a 2-1 loser in its last match at home against the Blues. They lost as favorites, while the total score of 3 made winners of UNDER bettors.

In their last action, Tampa Bay was a 1-0 loser at home against the Rangers. Bettors on New York at +104 on the moneyline collected their winnings from that game, while the total score (1) sent UNDER bettors home happy as well.

Betting Trends
  • Minnesota is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 22 games
  • Minnesota is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
  • Minnesota is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Minnesota

Next Betting Matchups

Minnesota at Florida, Friday, March 10th
Tampa Bay home to Florida, Saturday, March 11th