Don’t Expect Much Scoring in Leafs-Canadiens Game 5

The gap in talent between the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs has been on full display over the last three games of their first-round playoff series, which could come to an end Thursday at Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs (38-15-7 SU, 25-31-4 O/U) have outscored Montreal (25-24-11 SU, 25-32-3 O/U) 11-2 over the last three games to take control of the series.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Maple Leafs were already massive favorites when the Game 5 odds opened, but the number has grown all the way to -245 in some spots. The total is set at 5.5, with the UNDER at -125 to -130 and the OVER at +105 to +110.

Montreal News & Notes

Montreal came into the best-of-seven on the heels of a five-game losing skid to end the regular season and things haven’t gotten much better with the postseason underway. After escaping with a 2-1 upset win in Toronto in Game 1, the Canadiens have been thoroughly outplayed at both ends of the ice in the first playoff meeting between the Original Six rivals since 1979.

The Canadiens’ best hope of sending the series back to Montreal for a Game 6 is forsaking some of their physical play in favor of a more wide-open approach that should generate additional scoring chances. Montreal also needs to fine-tune its power play, which has gone a dreadful 0-for-13 through the first four games of the series.

Toronto News & Notes

The Maple Leafs are on the brink of their first second-round playoff appearance since 2004 – and they have looked dominant along the way, entering Thursday as the only playoff team with a perfect penalty-kill rate while boasting the lowest goals-against average (1.00) and No. 1 save percentage (.965). A win Thursday will lock in a second-round date with the Winnipeg Jets.

Look for the Maple Leafs to push from the start to close this one out, something they’ve actually had trouble doing so far in the series. Toronto has just one first-period goal through the Sportsbook four games, with the overwhelming majority of their scoring (eight of 12 goals) coming in the middle frame. The teams have combined for just three first-period goals all series.

Betting Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-130)

The Canadiens can’t keep up with the Maple Leafs right now, so expect them to try to limit high-danger scoring chances in what should be another low-scoring affair.