The Toronto Maple Leafs look to get back to .500 at home when they face-off vs the New Jersey Devils tonight. The Leafs are 4-5 SU in nine home games this season and shut down the Golden Knights in their last game in T.Dot. Toronto sits second in the Eastern Conference while their opponent New Jersey is 14th due to its inability to win on the road. The Devils are 1-5 SU in six away games this season and have allowed an average of 4.6 goals in those contests.
The Leafs opened as -165 favorites with a total of 6.
- The Devils are 1-5 SU in six road games this season.
- The Leafs are ranked 30th in Sportsbook opportunities this season.
- The UNDER has hit in the Leafs’ last 10 games.
Devils have been Tough to Trust in Road Games
After the feel-good story of making the playoffs and winger Taylor Hall winning the Hart Trophy last season, the Devils haven’t snuck up on anyone this year. The Devs are allowing 4.6 goals per game on the road and have been outscored 30-16 in their six away games this season so it shouldn’t be a shocker for why they’re 1-5 SU away from the Prudential Center.
Goaltending has been a tricky issue for New Jersey this season with Corey Schneider on the mend and only suiting up for three games so far. Backup Keith Kincaid may end up taking the starting gig as he owns a 2.58 GAA to go with a .918 save percentage in 11 starts this season. In his four road starts this year, his GAA jumps to 3.57 and save percentage drops to .896. I still expect the Devils to keep this game competitive but if they continue to come up short in the goals department, it could be another loss on the docket for a team in 14th place in the East.
Leafs Scoring has Fizzled at Scotiabank Arena
After the first two weeks of the season, bettors may have thought Toronto would average over five goals a game at the rate it was scoring. Well, the scoring regression was arrived with the Leafs only averaging 2.1 goals per game at home this season and while they’re undefeated on the road, they’re 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in nine games in the Six.
One of the reasons for the drop is the lack of Sportsbook opportunities as the Leafs have scored 12 goals on the man-advantage (ranked ninth) but have only gotten 40 chances to do so which ranks second-last in the NHL. That’s something that will likely correct itself as the season goes on but it’s a troubling trend when arguably your top goal scorer on the Sportsbook in Auston Matthews is on the shelf for the foreseeable future with a shoulder injury.
UNDER ALERT For Totals Bettors
The total opened at 6 for this matchup and while the Leafs have the potential to score six goals by themselves, trends point to the opposite when they take the ice lately. The UNDER has hit in Toronto’s last 10 games with an average combined score of 4.6 goals per game. Some detractors would point out that some of those totals were inflated to 6.5 which is why those games went UNDER but in six of the Leafs’ games when the total was set at 6, the UNDER hit in in five of them with an average combined score of 5.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. The Leafs’ scoring has dropped off significantly since Auston Matthews was injured (2.5 goals per game) and New Jersey hasn’t shown enough this season on the road to make me think it will come out firing.
