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NHL Playoffs: Game-to-Game Betting Guide for Round 2

The battle to find out who will own the right to lift Lord Stanley rages on and as we enter the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, some interesting trends have developed, none bigger than the success of underdogs on both the moneyline and puckline.

That’s the kind of trend that can make you a rink full of money and in an attempt to find the next profitable trend, I had the data science team here at OddsShark break down the live betting, three-way moneyline and puckline numbers from the first round and I’ve provided analysis for each of those groups of data.

Also, here are some other useful betting numbers that developed in Round 1.

  • Moneyline underdogs were 23-19 SU with a profit of nearly $1000 for $100 bettors.
  • Road teams went 22-20 SU.
  • The overall OVER/UNDER was 13-20-9 but was 11-17-9 for the teams that advanced.
  • Puckline underdogs were 35-7 overall but the teams that advanced were 22-2.
  • Teams that advanced from the West were 11-2 SU as moneyline underdogs.
  • Teams that advanced from the West were 9-1 SU on the road.

Live Betting

Unless you taped your eyes open in the first round, you likely missed a lead change or two. Two- and three-goal leads have evaporated like the interest in a hockey team in Arizona so there's been plenty of opportunity to make some money live betting.

The Sens were the best of the teams that moved on at coming back to win after being scored on first. They did it twice against the Bruins. The caveat here being that they also gave up a ton of leads themselves and even lost two games in the first round when they nabbed the first marker. My advice? Watch the lines and if there's significant value when the Sens go down a goal, go ahead and bet them.

When Leading
TeamAfter Scoring FirstAfter 1st PeriodAfter 2nd Period
Ducks3-02-02-0
Oilers4-10-12-1
Rangers2-01-03-1
Predators3-02-03-0
Senators2-21-11-1
Penguins3-02-03-0
Blues4-02-03-0
Capitals2-12-11-0
When Trailing
TeamAfter Not Scoring FirstAfter 1st PeriodAfter 2nd Period
Ducks1-01-01-0
Oilers0-11-11-1
Rangers2-22-10-1
Predators1-00-01-0
Senators2-01-01-0
Penguins1-11-10-1
Blues0-10-10-1
Capitals2-11-10-1

Three-way Moneyline

What pops out here is the amount of times teams went to overtime in the first round (18). That number was actually a record so you might be wise to hop on some draw bets on the three-way moneyline if you think a game is a toss-up, especially in the Capitals-Penguins series. Washington took all but one of its six first-round games with Toronto to OT and with the margins so close in the Caps' series with the Pens, I think a few contests may need an extra stanza or two.

Record in regulation
TeamRegulation RecordTimes Gone to OvertimeGoal Differential Per Game
Predators3-012.5
Ducks3-011.25
Capitals1-050.33
Rangers3-120.5
Penguins3-111.6
Oilers3-12-0.33
Blues2-120.6
Senators1-140.33

Puckline

These numbers are a little more difficult to draw anything from considering the two outliers are playing each other in Round 2 but they're interesting, nonetheless. The Caps were favored in every game against the Leafs and since all their games were decided by one goal, they failed to cash a single puckline.

My advice for the second round would be to stick to moneylines or three-way bets. Pucklines have not been profitable, unless you've been laying an insane amount of chalk.

Best Puckline Records
TeamRecordProfitRecord as FavRecord as Dog
Penguins4-1492.743-11-0
Rangers5-1326.321-14-0
Predators3-1249.471-12-0
Oilers3-30.211-22-1
Senators5-192.210-15-0
Blues4-185.910-04-1
Ducks2-2-131.330-22-0
Capitals0-6-600.00-60-0

Archived Articles

The NHL playoffs are upon us and to help you with your game-to-game betting, I've compiled a list of betting data from the regular season. To make sure all trends are at least somewhat relevant, I only used numbers from games after the trade deadline in an attempt to paint an accurate picture of each team as they head into their postseason matchups.

If you took in any of my NHL content during the regular season, you know I gave weekly updates on live betting, the three-way moneyline, and of course, the puckline. I've broken this article down by those three categories and given a brief analysis of which teams I think you should be targeting as well as which ones I think could be worth a fade.

For the traditional betting numbers for the entire season (straight up, OVER/UNDER, ATS) of all the playoff teams, scroll all the way to the bottom of this article.

For NHL futures odds, click the appropriate link to find the article you're looking for: Stanley Cup Futures, Eastern and Western Conference Futures, Conn Smythe Futures, NHL Series Prices.

Live Betting

The Blue Jackets and Penguins meet in the first round of Lord Stanley's most sacred competition and they have something in common – neither one can hold a lead when they score first. Columbus is 7-5 in that situation since the trade deadline and Pittsburgh is 7-6. My suggestion here is to think about betting against whichever team scores the first goal of the game if they're being offered at a good price as neither one has proved it's capable of holding a lead.

When Leading
TeamAfter Scoring FirstAfter 1st PeriodAfter 2nd Period
Ducks10-25-311-1
Bruins9-36-18-0
Flames9-39-19-0
Blackhawks9-46-26-2
Blue Jackets7-54-18-1
Oilers10-38-19-1
Wild7-35-06-1
Canadiens8-16-06-0
Rangers5-53-15-2
Predators6-53-37-3
Senators6-34-18-1
Penguins7-66-111-1
Sharks6-34-18-1
Blues13-27-211-0
Maple Leafs6-37-29-1
Capitals11-36-19-0
When Losing
TeamAfter Not Scoring FirstAfter 1st PeriodAfter 2nd Period
Ducks4-32-20-1
Bruins2-51-31-4
Flames2-41-10-7
Blackhawks2-52-42-6
Blue Jackets4-52-50-6
Oilers3-22-22-3
Wild1-101-60-9
Canadiens4-53-53-6
Rangers3-60-30-6
Predators3-51-41-5
Devils1-130-80-12
Senators5-72-42-5
Penguins5-32-21-5
Sharks3-81-60-10
Blues2-33-31-3
Maple Leafs6-51-30-6
Capitals2-40-20-5

Three-way Moneyline

Stop me if you've heard this before but according to this chart, the St. Louis Blues have been the best team in the NHL since the trade deadline. They've gone 14-3 in regulation and needed overtime to settle their contests just three times since parting ways with Kevin Shattenkirk.

I like the Blues a lot in these playoffs and think they'll offer value in most spots until the public realizes how good they actually are. 

Teams' Records in regulation
TeamRegulation RecordTimes Gone to OvertimeGoal Differential Per Game
Ducks12-251.16
Blues14-331.15
Oilers12-421.06
Maple Leafs11-630.2
Penguins10-650.29
Capitals10-640.4
Canadiens8-550.67
Blackhawks8-570.15
Bruins11-710.63
Senators8-67-0.05
Blue Jackets10-830.05
Flames8-730.67
Rangers7-75-0.16
Predators7-750.26
Wild8-112-0.19
Sharks8-111-0.35

Puckline

Although they were a little fortunate to draw the Canadiens in the playoffs instead of one of the juggernauts in the Metropolitan, the Rangers will be a great fade on the puckline from here on. They were terrible at home down the stretch and they even went on a horrendous eight-game losing streak at Madison Square Garden.

My suggestion here would be to back their first-round opponents, the Canadiens, on the moneyline when they're playing in New York. The Blueshirts hemorrhaged money as favorites after the trade deadline, going just 1-9 ATS, and they were actually swept by the Canadiens in their regular-season series.

Puckline Records
TeamRecordProfitRecord as FavRecord as Dog
Flames9-9 (50.0%)369.396-43-5
Predators12-7 (63.2%)780.536-56-2
Blues12-8 (60.0%)704.298-74-1
Penguins11-10 (52.4%)466.688-83-2
Oilers10-8 (55.6%)364.767-73-1
Senators13-8 (61.9%)186.773-310-5
Ducks12-7 (63.2%)706.566-76-0
Sharks10-10 (50.0%)34.356-74-3
Bruins8-11 (42.1%)-2.637-101-1
Canadiens8-10 (44.4%)34.965-83-2
Capitals8-12 (40.0%)-117.597-121-0
Blue Jackets9-12 (42.9%)-218.525-94-3
Maple Leafs10-10 (50.0%)-87.044-86-2
Wild8-13 (38.1%)-387.855-103-3
Blackhawks10-10 (50.0%)-43.264-96-1
Rangers7-12 (36.8%)-719.851-96-3
OVERALL Traditional Betting Numbers
TeamSU RecordProfitO/UATS
Ducks46-36$27328-36-1843-39
Blues46-36$39134-35-1334-48
Oilers47-35$50132-42-844-38
Maple Leafs40-42$-61337-43-245-37
Penguins50-33$10147-30-538-44
Capitals55-27$78636-31-1537-45
Canadiens47-35$30329-38-1544-38
Blackhawks50-32$88237-32-1341-41
Bruins44-38$-49637-37-839-43
Senators44-38$109832-47-346-36
Blue Jackets50-32$114132-44-641-41
Flames45-37$77134-37-1143-39
Rangers48-34$84440-36-638-44
Predators41-41$-67741-35-640-42
Wild49-33$52742-31-944-38
Sharks46-36$-30922-37-2334-48

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