With the NHL Playoffs underway, here's an early glance at the Conn Smythe contenders.
Though Edmonton has yet to make it past the Conference Finals in the last decade, Connor McDavid is the slight favorite to add his first Conn Smythe trophy to his collection.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid (Edmonton) | +700 |
| Sebastian Aho (Carolina) | +1400 |
| Artemi Panarin (NY Rangers) | +1600 |
| Jake Guentzel (Carolina) | +1600 |
| Frederik Andersen (Carolina) | +1600 |
| Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) | +1800 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) | +1800 |
| Aleksander Barkov (Florida) | +1800 |
| David Pastrnak (Boston) | +2000 |
| Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado) | +2000 |
| Matthew Tkachuk (Florida) | +2000 |
| Auston Matthews (Toronto) | +2200 |
| Adam Fox (NY Rangers) | +2500 |
| Jack Eichel (Vegas) | +2500 |
| Kyle Connor (Winnipeg) | +2800 |
| Jeremy Swayman (Boston) | +3000 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) | +3000 |
| Cale Makar (Colorado) | +3000 |
| Jason Robertson (Dallas) | +3500 |
| Thatcher Demko (Vancouver) | +3500 |
| Elias Pettersson (Vancouver) | +3500 |
| Sam Reinhart (Florida) | +3500 |
| Quinn Hughes (Vancouver) | +3500 |
| Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) | +3500 |
Odds as of April 23
2024 Conn smythe early oddsboard recap
Of course, until the NHL postseason really starts to play out, there's not much to go off of. But, let's dissect what we have.
Connor McDavid (+700)
With McDavid's 132 regular season points that features an unfathomable 100 assists, his reputation for being the league's best player will always nudge him as an early contender.
In the series opener against the Kings, McDavid recorded five assists and three shots on goal in the 7-4 win. McJesus is clearly showing his ability to elevate the players around him.
Everyone with a 5-assist playoff game in the last 25 years:
— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) April 23, 2024
— Connor McDavid (tonight) pic.twitter.com/EqyUs580TJ
But again, Edmonton hasn't made it to the Stanley Cup final since 2006. McDavid hasn't even gotten a sniff at the Conn Smythe. Don't worry, he can hug his collection of Rocket Richard, Art Ross and Hart trophies to comfort him.
Nathan MacKinnon (+2000)
Where there's talks of McDavid, MacKinnon's name is bound to follow. Another player who looks unreal on the ice while weaving through the ice and snapping precise shots.
Despite Game 1's exhuasting 7-6 defeat in Winnipeg, MacKinnon notched a goal and assist with four shots on net.
Defending Nathan MacKinnon looks like an absolutely terrifying experience 🚀 pic.twitter.com/3yLdauqUD6
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) April 22, 2024
He had a career regular-season, eclipsing the 50-goal mark and demolishing his previous best with 140 points. After lifting the Cup in 2022, the Canadian was a +200 runner-up for the Conn Smythe, which was awarded to Cale Makar instead.
According to our NHL playoff series prices, oddsmakers are giving his Avalanche -135 odds to defeat the Jets in the first round.
Conn Smythe Trophy Betting
If you think regular futures betting is tough, try selecting not only the winning team but the highest-performing player from that roster. It may seem as simple as selecting the team's best player, but the problem is that Stanley Cup-caliber squads have multiple best players.
| Year | Winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jonathan Marchessault (RW) | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 2022 | Cale Makar (D) | Colorado Avalanche |
| 2021 | Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2020 | Victor Hedman (D) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2019 | Ryan O’Reilly (C) | St. Louis Blues |
| 2018 | Alexander Ovechkin (LW) | Washington Capitals |
| 2017 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2016 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2015 | Duncan Keith (D) | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 2014 | Justin Williams (RW) | Los Angeles Kings |
Colorado forwards Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen can be the best player on the ice on any given night, and the same goes for Tampa Bay stars Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. The problem is that they have teammates that are just as good. Even if you have a strong feeling about your Stanley Cup pick, stick to that market until the playoff narratives develop.
The area where you can truly find value in Conn Smythe betting is during the final round. Last year, Marchessault entered Game 4 as a -140 favorite to win the award. While he had just one assist that night, he moved to -500 to capture the award heading into Game 5.
A pre-Game 4 bet was essentially a bet on Vegas to win the series (which was -275), barring any other heroic performances, at a discount.
Conn Smythe: Little Love For Losers
A Stanley Cup Final loser has won the Conn Smythe only five times – and not since 2003 when Mighty Ducks of Anaheim netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it by posting a stellar .945 SV% and 1.62 goals-against average with five shutouts in 21 games.
The five Final losers to win the Conn Smythe:
- 1966 - Roger Crozier (Detroit Red Wings)
- 1968 - Glenn Hall (St. Louis Blues)
- 1976 - Reggie Leach (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 1987 - Ron Hextall (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 2003 - Jean-Sebastien Giguere (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
