NHL Expert Picks June 18, 2024

NHL Playoffs Expert Picks: Panthers Clinch The Cup On Home Ice

Will tonight be the night the Stanley Cup is awarded? Josie Costigan and I have you covered with expert picks for every game of the NHL's championship series. Here's our pick for Game 5 between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida.

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Rolling Records
Michel: 44-30 (+2.63 Units)
Josie: 31-37 (-4.73 Units)


Stanley Cup Finals Game 5: Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
The Game: Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers, Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Stanley Cup Finals Game 5: Oilers vs Panthers
Edmonton Oilers+1.5 (-218)O5.5 (-105)+120
Florida Panthers-1.5 (+180)U5.5 (-115)-142


Michel's Take: Turns out I was wrong to take the Panthers in Game 4. We haven't seen a sweet since 1998 for a reason. It's hard to eliminate teams, in any round, but specifically so in the Stanley Cup Finals. 

But I'm going to double down on the pick. I've got a few stats to back up my take.

After Bobrovsky gives up five or more goals as a member of the Florida Panthers, he's 21-7SU (75%) in the next game. The Conn Smythe favorite shouldn't be doubted after a single bad outing. 

Then consider, that Florida has the best home record in the playoffs at 8-3SU (73%). They're also a perfect 3-0SU against the Oilers at the Amerant Bank Arena.

Winning a franchise-first Stanley Cup championship at home is too much to pass up for Florida. They've got the trend and the motivation to get it done tonight.

Pick: Panthers ML (-142)

Josie's Take: I'm a conspiracy theorist, the Panthers wanted to save the moment of hoisting the Cup for their home crowd -- where they're 8-3 SU at Amerant Bank Arena. 

The Oiler's truly showed their frustration last game, burying the Panthers with eight goals. It marked the fourth time this postseason that Bobrovsky allowed five or more goals. In all the games that followed those outings, the 35-year-old snapped back, conceding a max of two goals and clinching the win. 

The last team to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the Stanley Cup Finals was the Maple Leafs in 1942. So, the Oilers are at the bottom of a steep climb. Too bad, they'll never see the view at the top. I'm going with Florida again, tonight.

Pick: Panthers ML (-142)

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