NY Rangers and Florida Panthers featured in our expert picks for May 30

NHL Playoff Expert Picks & Preview: Banking On The UNDER

We're well into the Stanley Cup playoffs now. Every day of the NHL postseason, Michel Anderson and I have you set with daily expert picks.

With the series tied, the Florida Panthers are road betting favorites (-125) against the NY Rangers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final. 

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Rolling Records
Michel: 44-27 (+5.63 Units)
Josie: 30-36 (-5.47 Units)

Game 5: panthers vs rangers preview & pick
The Game: Florida Panthers vs NY Rangers, 8 PM ET

TeamPucklineTotalMoneyline
Florida Panthers-1.5 (+215)O5.5 (+110)-125
NY Rangers+1.5 (-265)U5.5 (-130)+105


Josie's Take: Looking to avoid trailing in the series, the Rangers, 5-2 SU at home this postseason, host the Panthers, who are 5-2 SU on the road throughout the playoffs. 

The Rangers are relying on Shesterkin, who has recorded a respectable .935SV% this series. On the other end of the ice is Bobrovsky, another wall recording a fair .907SV%.

This series is constantly coming down to the wire with three-straight overtimes. New York struggles to score because it is a special teams unit that can't generate 5-on-5. But Florida is trying to beat Shesterkin -- who is the only player to really shine for the Rangers. Six of their last seven games have hit the UNDER when the Panthers enter as favorites. I'm sticking with that.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-130)

Michel's Take: We've seen the UNDER hit three times already in this series. We can thank Sergei Bobrovsky for his efforts in Game 3 for running a perfect 4-for-4.

Why would we bet on anything else but the UNDER for Game 5? If you look at the underlying numbers, these teams have only combined for more than six xG once, and that was in Game 1 where they combined for a 6.08 xG. So assuming either goalie stops at least one goal above expected the UNDER hits.

Now consider that Florida has hit the UNDER in their last four road games in the playoffs. And that they held a 25-15-1 (63%) record against the UNDER on the road in the regular season.

The Rangers have hit the UNDER in their last three playoff games at home.
Brick-by-brick of data points to the UNDER hitting tonight.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-130)

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