Erik Karlsson will turn Pittsburgh Penguins into an OVERs factory

Karlsson Trade Turns Penguins Into OVERs Factory

The Pittsburgh Penguins made a big move this offseason in acquiring 100-point defenseman Erik Karlsson from a rebuilding San Jose Sharks. New President and GM Kyle Dubas now gets a player he's been targeting since has was chasing the Stanley Cup with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

These are the kind of moves the NHL desperately needs. It adds spice and drama to a frankly dull and stuffy league.

I'm less interested in what this means in terms of getting the Penguins back into the playoffs and more on what it means for the totals! It was the first thing I tweeted after seeing the trade.

Erik Karlsson: All Offense, No Defense

Karlsson is an elite offensive defenseman. That has been well established over his now 14-year NHL career. No defenseman has more points than EK's 761 since he entered the league in 2009-10.

But it's also been well-established that Karlsson isn't great defensively. A fact, that isn't going to get much better considering Karlsson is now in his early 30s. That's young for life but it's getting old for hockey

That all offense and no defense for a guy who's going to play nearly 25 minutes a night for Pittsburgh. That type of play is going to have a big impact on the Penguins' totals record this season. As in they'll most definitely hit the OVER. A lot.

Want to know how I know this?

Because we have the data.

Erik Karlsson: OVER Factory

We've seen Karlsson move from one team to another before. When EK made the move to the Bay area the Sharks average number of goals scored and allowed jumped by nearly a combined goal per game. 

Sharks Scoring Per Game Change
Sharks SeasonGoals For/GameGoals Against/Game


In Karlsson's last season with the Sens, Ottawa generated nearly six units of profits when blindly betting the OVER on all 82 games. That record followed him to San Jose where the Sharks generated seven-and-a-half units of profits when blindly betting the OVER.

Karlsson brought his OVERs factory from Ottawa to San Jose.

Karlsson's Impact on Totals
Team Record vs OVERProfitability
Ottawa (2017-18)44-38 (53.7%)+$599.27
San Jose (2018-19)46-33-3 (58.2%)+$753.49


And now Karlsson joins a Pittsburgh squad that was middle of the pack for offense in 22-23 (16th for goals) and in the bottom half for defense with 263 goals allowed (ranked 19th in the league).

The Swedish defenseman isn't about to sway either of those records in a way that pushes the Pens to hit the UNDER more this year. Make sure to bet the OVER when the Pens play.