Auston Matthews NHL Hockey Betting Preview Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs Ready for Revenge vs Penguins

With their margin for error gone yet again, the Toronto Maple Leafs are back in must-win mode Thursday night as they wrap up a home-and-home series against visiting Pittsburgh. The Leafs are tied with Florida for the final automatic playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, and are behind the pack in the wild-card race following a 5-2 loss in Pittsburgh on Monday.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Maple Leafs opened as -120 favorites but have slipped into the -110 to -115 range at most sportsbooks. The total is set at 6.5, with the OVER and UNDER carrying identical odds in most spots.

Pittsburgh News & Notes

The Penguins have taken advantage of the Washington Capitals’ recent struggles to seize top spot in the Metropolitan Division – and they’re the odds-on favorite to remain there at the majority of sportsbooks. But the home stretch could prove challenging for Pittsburgh, which will play 14 of its final 24 regular-season games away from PPG Paints Arena.

We addressed the Penguins’ surging power play before the previous game between the teams, and it bears repeating. Pittsburgh, which languished in the bottom half of the league rankings in power-play efficiency for most of the season, went 3-for-3 in Monday’s victory and now ranks eighth overall in man-advantage success rate at 21.9 percent.

Toronto News & Notes

Goaltending is back to being a problem for the Maple Leafs as they look to fend off the Panthers for the right to face one of the top two teams in the NHL at the moment (Boston or Tampa Bay) in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Toronto has a dismal .890 save percentage since the all-star break, sitting tied for 24th with Los Angeles in that span.

But a little home cooking could go a long way toward helping the Maple Leafs end their recent struggles. They rank 10th in the NHL in goals per game at home (3.37) and have won four of their previous five meetings with Pittsburgh at Scotiabank Arena. And Auston Matthews leads all skaters with 30 goals in 30 home games this season.

Betting Pick: Toronto

A Matthews goal seems like an inevitability in this one, and that could be enough to give the Maple Leafs the edge in what should be a more tightly contested meeting than the last one.

Shark Bites
  • Pittsburgh is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.
  • The OVER is 12-6 in Toronto’s past 18 games.
  • Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at Toronto.
PIT is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.away The OVER is 12-6 in TOR’s past 18 games.home PIT is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at TOR.away
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