We're closing out the week with three shot props for tonight's NHL games. Since the turn of the New Year, my shot prop bets have done well with a 13-5-1 record and picking up 5.4 units of profit.
Tonight, I'm focused on Owen Tippett failing to hit his shot prop of 2.5 shots on goal, but for both Pavel Dorofeyev and Jake Guentzel to hit OVER 2.5 shots in their respective games.
Flyers vs Islanders - Owen Tippett UNDER 2.5 SOG (+105)
Matchup Page: Flyers vs Islanders, 7:30 pm ET @ UBS Arena
Despite averaging 2.8 shots over his last 13 games, I don't trust Owen Tippett to get three or more shots against the Islanders tonight. Tippett has averaged just over two shots on net in 11 career games against the Islanders with 2.2, has three or more shots once in his last four games, and only managed to get two shots when his Flyers faced the Isles just over a week ago.
Meanwhile, if the Islanders have done anything right it's in the shot suppression department. They've allowed only 28.2 in their last five games, including a solid shot suppression effort against Owen Tippett and his Flyers on January 16, giving up only 24 shots to Philly on the night.
I don't see a scenario where Tippett gets enough of the puck against the Islanders to manage three shots or more on the net.
Golden Knights vs Stars - Pavel Dorofeyev O2.5 SOG (-105)
Matchup Page: Golden Knights vs Stars, 7:30 pm ET @ American Airlines Arena
With 143 shots on goal this year, Pavel Dorofeyev is averaging three shots on goal per game (rounded up from 2.979) and takes on a Dallas side where he's averaged 3.33 shots per game in an admittedly small sample size of three career games.
So what makes me so sure the results in that small sample size are trustworthy? It comes down to ice time and injury coverage.
In those three games, Dorofeyev was still being used as a middle six forward averaging between 13 and 16 minutes, but in his last 11 games, the Golden Knights are giving him 17-20 minutes a night, and he's using that extra time to get shots on net averaging 3.5 shots per game.
Don't forget that William Karlsson is now injured, that's 2.3 shots per game missing from the Knights lineup, so expect Dorofeyev to get a few more pucks with that already increased ice time.
Lightning vs Blackhawks - Jake Guentzel O2.5 SOG (+105)
Matchup Page: Lightning vs Blackhawks, 8:00 pm ET @ United Center
There are more shots against at a Hawks game than at a Friday night bachelorette party, the Hawks have allowed an average of 35.8 shots in their last 12 games including allowing their opponents to get 40+ shots in two of their last three games.
So Tampa should see a ton of puck tonight and with Guentzel getting five shots on net in his last outing I'm focusing on his shot prop tonight.
Guentzel has always been a hot-and-cold player and with goals in three of his four games, I believe he's entering a hot period where he won't just score goals but get a ton of shots on net too. I believe he's entering a period similar to what we saw at the end of November and into mid-December where he scored nine goals in seven games, and more importantly for this prop averaged 4.14 shots on net. So I'll take OVER 2.5 shots at +105 tonight.
