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Fave Dominating in Pens-Bolts Matchups

Tampa Bay Lightning Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

While it might not be the Eastern Conference final matchup that many of us predicted, the series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning promises to be an exciting one featuring a pair of teams that deserve to be here. One thing is certain, however: There is a betting trend that has dominated the narrative when these two teams meet and it’s been so hot that it should not be taken lightly.

Shark Bites
  • The Penguins are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Lightning are 1-6 SU in their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Pens’ last eight games as home faves.

Online shop Bovada is presently offering the Penguins at -180 in moneyline markets for Game 1 while the Lightning are sitting there at +160. As far as the total is concerned, OVER 5 goals is -130 while UNDER 5 goals is currently priced at +110.

The favorite has dominated this matchup to the tune of a 14-1 straight up record in the past 15 meetings. The dog did triumph in the last meeting, however, as the Bolts skated to a 4-2 victory as moneyline pups priced at -103 back on February 20.

Also of note here is the fact that the OVER has cashed at a furious rate, going 7-0 in the past seven meetings.

The two clubs met three times during the regular season with the Lightning winning all three contests by scores of 5-4, 6-3 and 4-2.

The Pens and Lightning have met in the playoffs once before. Back in 2011, the Lightning needed seven games to eliminate Pittsburgh in the conference quarterfinals.

Steven Stamkos, the injured Bolts sniper who remains out indefinitely, tallied five points in the three regular season games against the Pens. It was his second-highest scoring output against any team this season behind the six points he recorded in three games against the Columbus Blue Jackets. While he'll be sorely missed, players like Tyler Johnson (13 points) and Nikita Kucherov (12 points) have really filled the scoring void that the injured Stamkos leaves.

Keep an eye on Patrick Hornqvist of the Pens in this series. In three games versus the Lightning during the regular season, the Swede scored two goals and added three assists and was the most effective skater in the head-to-head meetings.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

If you're going with the Pittsburgh Penguins in this one, they were listed as moneyline favorites of -170 on most NHL hockey betting menus (such as Bovada) early today for Friday's contest. The over-under total was at 5 earlier at Bet365.

Odds Shark computer prediction formulas pick a 3.7-2.1 win for the Lightning on Friday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Pittsburgh Penguins sport a record of 56-28-9 heading into this matchup, while the Tampa Bay Lightning sit at 53-33-5 on the season. The OVER/UNDER records are 41-35-17 for the Penguins and 37-42-12 for the Lightning. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

This game puts the Pittsburgh Penguins, most recently No. 1 in the Odds Shark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who rate a No. 21 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Pittsburgh Penguins No. 2-ranked offense (3.03 goals per game) against a Tampa Bay Lightning defense that ranks No. 3 at 2.39 goals per game allowed. The Penguins powerplay has clicked at a 19.73% rate while the Lightning have a 84.67% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time out for Tampa Bay, they were a 4-0 winner as they battled the Islanders at home. Moneyline bettors who got the Lightning at -155 were rewarded, while the 4 combined goals moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.


Betting Trends
  • Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home
  • Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, Monday, May 16th