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Lightning may be a profitable road bet vs Leafs

The Tampa Bay Lightning look to start 2018 on a winning note when they head to the Six to face off vs Toronto. Tampa has been a profitable road bet this season and is 12-6 SU away from Amalie Arena. The Lightning will try to build on their lead in the NHL standings tonight and it won’t be easy at the Air Canada Centre, where the Buds are 11-5 SU this season. The Leafs opened at +101 home dogs to knock off the Bolts.

  • The Leafs are 7-2 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Leafs’ last five games vs Atlantic Division teams.
  • The Lightning are 9-3 SU in their last 12 road games vs Atlantic Division teams.

This matchup could be a potential Eastern Conference final preview and with so much talent on the ice, it is must-see viewing for puck fans. The Lightning sport two of the top three scorers in the NHL in Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos and their presence translated to an outstanding December for the Bolts, who were 11-2 SU. And it wasn’t just the scoring that stood out as the Lightning were equally impressive defensively, holding teams to 2.14 goals per game in that stretch.

Toronto has started to come back down to earth after its fast start and lost three of five games on its most recent road trip. The return of Auston Matthews from a concussion hasn’t pumped up the Leafs the way bettors had hoped as Toronto was 6-7 SU in December. Placing a wager on the Leafs to come through could be a fool’s errand as they’ve lost four of their last five when hosting the Lightning.

The total opened at 6 in this matchup and while both of these teams rank in the top five in scoring, trends point to an UNDER. The total has gone UNDER in the last three games and four of the last five between these two divisional foes.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

On the opening NHL betting line for this matchup, Toronto sat as a +101 underdog over at BetOnline. The total was set at 6 at Bovada but may move closer to puck drop.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 3.8-2.1 win for the Lightning. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Toronto Maple Leafs bring a 23-15-2 record to the battle against the 28-8-2 Lightning. OVER/UNDER bettors have seen Toronto go 20-16-4 so far and the Lightning go 22-16. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Toronto vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

According to new NHL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, it's the No. 7-ranked Maple Leafs and the No. 1-rated Lightning in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Toronto Maple Leafs' No. 4-ranked offense (3.38 goals per game) against a Tampa Bay Lightning defense that ranks No. 2 at 2.45 goals per game allowed. The Maple Leafs power play has clicked at a 21.93% rate while the Lightning have a 79.07% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Lightning were a 5-0 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Blue Jackets. That made winners of bettors who got Tampa Bay at -145 on the moneyline, while the total score (5) was good news for UNDER bettors.

Toronto lost its last outing, a 6-3 result against the Golden Knights on December 31. Bettors who backed the Golden Knights at -123 on the moneyline won on the day, and the total score (9) sent OVER bettors to the payout window.

Betting Trends
  • Tampa Bay is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
  • Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Toronto is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
  • Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay at Montreal, Thursday, January 4
Toronto home to San Jose, Thursday, January 4