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The Capitals are rare home dogs vs Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning opened as the favorite vs the Washington Capitals tonight. The Lightning own the second-best record in the NHL but are in the midst of a mini-slump, having dropped three of their last four games. This is the first time Washington isn’t favored at home since the end of November.

  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Capitals’ last 10 games vs teams with winning records.
  • The Lightning are 6-1 SU in their last seven games with two days off between games.
  • Alex Ovechkin leads the NHL with 35 goals this season.

The Capitals have a decent home record this season at 20-10 SU but haven’t been a reliable bet lately at Capital One Arena at 2-5 SU in their last seven home games. The Caps will be playing their third game in four nights and one of the main reasons for their falter has been goaltending, as opponents have averaged four goals per game in Washington’s last three losses.

If bettors are planning to back Washington, they should know that the Caps are 8-2 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup, outscoring the Bolts 39-21. Another edge for Washington backers is that the Capitals have only been a home dog twice this season and are 2-0 SU in those games.

Tampa Bay has finally hit a wall during the dog days of the NHL season. The Lightning have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games, which is their worst stretch all year. But coincidentally, league-leading scorer Nikita Kucherov is having one of his best months with 13 points in nine games in February. He and the Bolts should be plenty rested for tonight’s tilt as they haven’t played since Saturday.

The total opened at 6 and trends are pointing toward an OVER in this matchup. The OVER has been profitable in eight of Tampa’s last nine games and the Lightning are the highest-scoring team in the league. Bettors should also factor in that the OVER has hit in five of the Capitals’ last six games and the OVER has hit in 14 of the last 19 games in this matchup.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to side with the Washington Capitals in this one found them earlier as +102 underdogs on the NHL moneyline at Bet365 . Betting the OVER/UNDER total instead? It was hovering near 6 at its open earlier today at BetOnline and may have moved.

OddsShark computer prediction formulas pick a 3.4-2.4 win for the Lightning on Tuesday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

This season the Washington Capitals are 34-18-7 overall while the Tampa Bay Lightning are 39-17-3. As for the totals, Washington is 35-24 on the OU, and Tampa Bay is 37-22. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Washington vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

This game puts the Capitals, most recently No. 22 in the OddsShark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Lightning, who rate a No. 21 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Washington Capitals' No. 9-ranked offense (3.14 goals per game) against a Tampa Bay Lightning defense that ranks No. 7 at 2.69 goals per game allowed. The Capitals power play has clicked at a 20.9% rate while the Lightning have a 78.12% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Tampa Bay was a 4-3 loser in its last match at home against the Devils. They lost as favorites, while the total score of 7 made winners of OVER bettors.

The Capitals were a 3-2 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Sabres. That made winners of bettors who got Washington at -156 on the moneyline, while the total score (5) was good news for UNDER bettors.

Betting Trends
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
  • Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Washington is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
  • Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay at Ottawa, Thursday, February 22
Washington at Florida, Thursday, February 22