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Lightning, Islanders Game 4 Could Be High-Scoring Affair

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Preview

The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning played an exciting, up-tempo Game 3, and with the potential return of the Tampa’s leading scorer, it is fair to expect more fireworks from these teams.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders
  • Date/Time: September 13, 3 p.m. ET
  • Arena: Rogers Place
  • TV Coverage: HNIC, SNET, NBCSN
  • Opening Odds: Lightning -143 | O/U 6.5 (Line History)
  • Lightning vs Islanders Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

This game opened with the Lightning as favorites at -143 and the line has shifted in both directions once again. Depending on the book, you can find the line anywhere from -140 to -150. The total opened at 6.5 and has dropped to either 5 or 5.5 depending on the book.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

Game 3 was again a pretty even matchup between the Lightning and Islanders, however the slight edge did go to Tampa as they had more total scoring chances (29-26), high danger scoring chances (15-12) and a much higher share of the total shots and shot attempts. Considering the team’s top playoff scorer Brayden Point did not play, these numbers are a good sign for the Lightning moving forward.

Point is a question mark to play in Game 4, but it is clear the Lightning have the fire power to create chances even without him. The Lightning will get back forward Alex Killorn for Game 4 served a one-game suspension for boarding the Islanders’ Brock Nelson.

Expect a bounce back from goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy who had his worst five on five save percentage (.896) since a Game 3 win over the Blue Jackets last month.

New York News & Notes

In Game 3, the New York Islanders had their lowest share of the total scoring chances of the series at (47.27%). The number is not especially poor, but what is troubling is that the number has trended down for the Isles in three straight games. As well, the 29 scoring chances New York allowed in Game 3 was almost as many as they had allowed in the first two games combined (30). This may be a sign the series is starting to open up, which favors the high-flying Lightning.

Despite being one of the highest scoring teams of the playoffs, the Islanders prefer a defensive style which limits the opportunities for the other team. If the Lightning have figured out a way to break down that defense without their top scorer, it doesn’t bode well for the Islanders moving forward.

Betting Pick: OVER 5.5

Bettors can find the OVER in the +115 to +125 range which we think is a great value. There are signs the series is opening up offensively and the Lightning could be getting back Brayden Point, who participated in practice with the team on Saturday.

Shark Bites
  • Tampa is 14-5 in their last 19 games vs the Islanders.
  • The OVER is 4-2 in the Islanders last six games.
  • Tampa’s Point and Kucherov are the leading scorers among remaining players.