Despite a 6-1-1 SU run, the Toronto Maple Leafs are losing ground in the race for second place in the Atlantic Division in the stretch run of the season. The Leafs go up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning in Canada tonight. Sportsbooks opened the Maple Leafs as -115 home favorites with a total of 6.5.
Bettors will likely be flocking to the OVER due to the high-octane offenses both teams possess, but I’m going the opposite route and taking the UNDER in this one. The Lightning have been a prolific UNDER team mainly due to the contributions of Vasilevskiy, and the Russian should put on a show once again in Toronto.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Lightning’s last 10 games on the road (avg. combined score: 5.2).away The Maple Leafs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.home The Lightning are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs the Maple Leafs.