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Despite High-Scoring Ways, Lightning Have Been Cashing UNDERs on the Road

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 of the Tampa Bay Lightning gets ready for the game against the Minnesota Wild at Amalie Arena on March 7, 2019 in Tampa, Florida.

Despite a 6-1-1 SU run, the Toronto Maple Leafs are losing ground in the race for second place in the Atlantic Division in the stretch run of the season. The Leafs go up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning in Canada tonight. Sportsbooks opened the Maple Leafs as -115 home favorites with a total of 6.5.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Toronto is coming off a 2-0-1 trek through Western Canada that ended with a 3-2 triumph over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday. John Tavares matched his career high with his 38th goal on Saturday and now has 76 points on the season.
  • The Lightning lead the NHL in scoring (3.77 goals per game) and power-play percentage (28.6) and picked up a 3-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings at home on Saturday. Since the all-star break, the Lightning are averaging 3.26 goals per game – the ninth-best mark in the league.
  • Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy turned aside 75 of 79 shots against Toronto earlier this season. The Lightning topped Toronto 4-1 in the first meeting between the squads on December 13 before the Leafs got some revenge in the form of a 4-2 win on January 17.
  • Toronto starting netminder Frederik Andersen has been stellar of late, going 6-0-1 in his last seven starts. The Dane hasn’t fared well against the Lightning in his career, however, as he’s 3-7-1 all-time vs Tampa Bay. On the season, Andersen is 33-13-4 with a 2.56 goals-against average and .924 save percentage.
  • When it comes to the total, bettors need to pay attention to Tampa Bay’s penchant for going UNDER totals on the road. In the Lightning’s past 10 road contests, the UNDER is 7-3 with an average combined score of 5.2 goals. The Bolts have cashed UNDER wagers in four of their past five overall heading into tonight’s game.
  • Tampa Bay has had the upper hand when it comes to covering the puckline in this series. The Lightning, who are 3-1 SU in their past four vs the Maple Leafs, are 4-0 on the puckline in that span. Bovada opened the Lightning’s +1.5 number at a steep price of -265.

My best bet for Lightning-Maple Leafs

UNDER 6.5 goals

Bettors will likely be flocking to the OVER due to the high-octane offenses both teams possess, but I’m going the opposite route and taking the UNDER in this one. The Lightning have been a prolific UNDER team mainly due to the contributions of Vasilevskiy, and the Russian should put on a show once again in Toronto.