Jason Robertson's Dallas Stars favored in our Maple Leafs vs Stars picks and odds

Maple Leafs vs Stars Picks & Odds: Toronto Wraps Up Tough Road Stretch at Dallas

The Toronto Maple Leafs (15-5-6) will play on the road for the sixth time in seven games when they visit the Central Division-leading Dallas Stars (14-6-5) on Tuesday in a near pick’em at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. More people would probably be talking about the Maple Leafs as one of the top Stanley Cup contenders in the Eastern Conference if not for the Boston Bruins, who just so happen to play in the same division and have the fewest losses in the league.  

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Early money has come in on a Toronto team that has rebounded from a mediocre start to win five of its last six, with four of those games played away from home.

Prior to last Saturday’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Maple Leafs won five games in a row along with six of seven and eight of 10, with the two losses during that stretch also decided in OT. They have not lost in regulation time since falling 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins sans goaltender Matt Murray (more on him later) back on November 11.

Dallas is coming off a 6-5 shootout loss to the Minnesota Wild at home on Sunday, failing to cash as a -155 favorite with goalie Scott Wedgewood between the pipes. The Stars had won their previous two games by a combined score of 9-1, with the UNDER going 2-0 as well. This line was at a near pick’em price, slightly shaded toward visiting Toronto at -108, with the total also down to 6 from 6.5 in what should be a close game.

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Murray’s Return Sparks Maple Leafs to Positive Run

While some ridiculed Toronto for making another poor goalie choice after Murray went out with an injury in the season opener, he and his teammates may end up getting the last laugh – if he can just stay healthy. Murray (5-1-2, 2.63 goals-against average, .921 save percentage) has been the key to the team’s winning ways lately, going 5-0-2 since coming back from IR.

It also helps that he and his fellow netminders are getting plenty of help offensively, with the Maple Leafs outscoring opponents 25-17 in the last seven games. Winger Mitch Marner just set Toronto’s consecutive points record with at least one point in 19 straight games, something that will be on the line here at Dallas too on Tuesday.

DeBoer Continues to Work Magic for Another New Team

Pete DeBoer was seen as the goat last season as the head coach for an injury-plagued Vegas Golden Knights club that missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. But what a difference a year makes, as Dallas still sits atop the Central, ahead of the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche.

If DeBoer can end this campaign like he has started it, he may take home the Jack Adams Award given to the top coach for the first time in his career.


Of course this is nothing new for the 54-year-old Ontario native, who has enjoyed early success with the New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks and Golden Knights before eventually flaming out with each of those teams. In fact, he made it to at least the conference finals in his first year with New Jersey, San Jose and Vegas, playing for the Cup twice over that span, something he hopes to do again this season.

Maple Leafs: Keys To Victory

Strong defense, led by improved goaltending, has been the secret to Toronto’s success. While Murray has played extremely well lately as the starter, reserves Erik Kallgren and Ilya Samsonov have also allowed only one goal apiece in their last outings that contributed to the team’s recent five-game winning streak. No matter who is in net, the Maple Leafs need to continue playing well on the blue line to hold the Stars in check.

Stars: Keys To Victory

Dallas has scored five goals or more in eight of its last nine wins, and lighting the lamp four times was not enough in three of its past six losses. It would be easy to say scoring five times is the key to victory in this spot, but the most goals scored against Toronto this year has been four on eight different occasions, and the team lost all eight of those games. So scoring four times should be plenty if the Stars are going to win.

NHL Computer Pick: Stars -110

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Shark Bites
  • Toronto is 8-0-3 in its last 11 games.
  • Toronto is 6-0-2 in its last 8 road games.
  • Dallas is 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.