Just like every year, anything short of winning the Stanley Cup is deemed a failure for the Toronto Maple Leafs. My Leafs 2024-25 season preview will detail if they can get to the playoffs and if they can win the Cup. More importantly, this preview will help you decide how to bet on the Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Offseason Acquisitions
- Chris Tanev was acquired in a trade from the Dallas Stars and signed to a 6-year contract
- Signed Jani Hakanpaa to 1-year, $1.47 million contract
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson signed to 4-year, $14 million contract
- Anthony Stolarz signed to 2-year, $5 million contract
Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Offseason Departures
- Tyler Bertuzzi signed with Chicago Blackhawks
- TJ Brodie signed with Chicago Blackhawks
- Ilya Lyubushkin signed with Dallas Stars
- Ilya Samsonov signed with Vegas Golden Knights
Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 Season Preview: All Eyes On The Playoffs
The 2023-24 season brought another first-round bounce from the playoffs. The Leafs have only made it past the first round of the postseason once in their last eight playoff appearances, a fact that cost head coach Sheldon Keefe his job and John Tavares his captaincy.
John Tavares officially passes the #leafs captaincy on to Auston Matthews. pic.twitter.com/DZnmHXqcOl
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) August 14, 2024
Stanley Cup-winning head coach (with the St. Louis Blues) Craig Berube steps in behind the bench. The former NHL enforcer is supposed to teach the Leafs how to play with sandpaper and grit, specifically in the playoffs, though I don’t believe he will. As I explored when Berube was the betting favorite to get the Leafs' job, his Blues team didn’t hit and didn’t block shots.
With the core four of Matthews, Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, the Leafs have more than enough offense to win 40-50 games this season. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are at -290, -140, and -130 respectively to hit 90+ points this season. Teams with two or more 90+ point players don’t miss the playoffs.
| Player | Points Odds |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 110+ (+460) 100+ (-110) 90+ (-290) |
| Mitch Marner | 110+ (+950) 100+ (+200) 90+ (-140) |
| William Nylander | 110+ (+1000) 100+ (-210) 90+ (-290) |
Odds as of September 23
If the goal for the Leafs is the Stanley Cup, making the playoffs should be a guarantee. FanDuel has their odds of making the playoffs at -370—an implied chance of 79%. Double that up with a regular season points total of 101.5 where the OVER is favored at -122 to -104 for the UNDER. Like teams with two 90+ points scorers, teams that put up at least 100 points in the standings don't miss the playoffs. Making the postseason dance is a guarantee.
Toronto Maple Leafs Less Than Stellar Stanley Cup Odds
Even though the Leafs are supposed to breeze past the regular season per their odds, that isn’t the case in the playoffs with the ninth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup at +1500. Even the Devils who missed the playoffs last year have better odds. Why?
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | +850 |
| Florida Panthers | +1000 |
| New Jersey Devils | +1100 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +1100 |
| Dallas Stars | +1100 |
| New York Rangers | +1300 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +1400 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +1400 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1500 |
Odds as of September 23
It comes down to significant doubt with the construction of the Leafs' blueline and the capabilities of their goaltending duo.
With five defenders over 30, Toronto has the second-oldest blueline in the league (only Carolina is older thanks to 39-year-old Brent Burns). Adding 34-year-old Chris Tanev to a six-year $27 million contract ($4.5 million AAV) was a wild gamble. Toronto brought Tanev in because he had the second-fewest goals against (at 5on5) in last year's playoffs for defensemen who played at least 350 minutes. But with Tanev turning 35 in December you’re more likely to see diminishing returns rather than a stabilized game from the veteran blueliner.
In net, the Leafs are counting on the duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. Woll has played in only 36 NHL games over his career. Last year he played in 25 and averaged a poor 0.907SV% and 2.94GAA. I wouldn't term that as "trustworthy". Stolarz had excellent numbers with Florida last year averaging a 0.925SV% and 2.03GAA in 24 starts. But outside of that one glowing season with the Panthers, Stolarz has averaged a more pedestrian 0.911SV% and 2.93GAA. Again, I wouldn't trust Stolarz to repeat what he did in Florida with the Leafs.
To have any success in the playoffs the Leafs will either have to catch lightning in a bottle or outscore their problems. FanDuel has the Leafs' playoff-round specials favoring 0 playoff-round wins
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leafs To Win 0 Playoff Rounds | -176 |
| Leafs To Win 1+ Playoff Rounds | +134 |
| Leafs To Win 2+ Playoff Rounds | +325 |
Odds as of September 23
The Leafs' strategy of having a suspect blueline and taking a massive risk with goaltending has been tried for years with no success. I doubt it works this year. Get ready to get hurt again Leafs fans, sorry.
