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Surging Leafs on the Verge of Clinching

The Maple Leafs have been taking care of their own business and with five games remaining on the schedule, it’s looking like they'll get back into the playoffs. They opened as the -150 favorites for the final road game of their regular season against the Sabres tonight in a matchup the two division rivals will look to settle the rubber.

  • The Maple Leafs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of the Sabres' last 10 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Maple Leafs' last 5 games after a win.

Going 17-8-3 against other teams in the Atlantic this year, the Maple Leafs have done a lot of their work in 2016-17 against divisional opponents. Combine that trend with their motivational factors and you get the recipe for a Leafs’ win tonight. Obviously, there are no guarantees in this game – but this one is pretty close.

The Buds have won six of their last seven games overall while the Sabres have dropped two straight. Buffalo's starting goalie, Robin Lehner, allowed four goals on just 26 shots in his last appearance in the blue paint and he’ll have to be much sharper than that if he hopes to help his team play spoiler this evening.

Toronto has been incredibly efficient of late, winning seven of its last 10 games despite being outshot in every single one of those contests. Buffalo, on the other hand, has accumulated 30 or more shots in seven straight games and will likely pace the Leafs in scoring opportunities tonight. If I was a betting man – and I am – I would take a serious look at the OVER 5.5.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks such as Bovada had the Buffalo Sabres as 136 moneyline underdogs in this particular NHL betting matchup earlier. The over under total, meanwhile, was set early at 5.5 before betting started to move the line at Bet365.

Odds Shark prediction models pick the Maple Leafs to win this game 3.5-2.1. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

32-34-12 Buffalo battles the Maple Leafs, currently with a 38-24-15 mark. The OVER/UNDER records, important for totals bettors, are 35-36-7 for the Sabres and 35-40-2 for the Maple Leafs. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Buffalo vs Toronto injuries news.

The Maple Leafs - Sabres odds would favor the Maple Leafs if the lines were set according to our power ranks. Buffalo is rated No. 19 in the current Odds Shark poll, while Toronto is at No. 8.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Buffalo Sabres No. 25-ranked offense (2.5 goals per game) against a Toronto Maple Leafs defense that ranks No. 23 at 2.94 goals per game allowed. The Sabres powerplay has clicked at a 24.89% rate while the Maple Leafs have a 83.54% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Maple Leafs were a 5-4 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Red Wings. That made winners of bettors who got Toronto at -149 on the moneyline, while the total score (9) was good news for OVER bettors.

In their last action, Buffalo was a 4-2 loser at home against the Islanders. Bettors on New York at +122 on the moneyline collected their winnings from that game, while the total score (6) sent OVER bettors home happy as well.

Betting Trends
  • Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
  • Toronto is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
  • Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
  • Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games at home
  • Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto

Next Betting Matchups

Toronto home to Washington, Tuesday, April 4th
Buffalo home to Montreal, Wednesday, April 5th