USA vs Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Final Odds & Picks: Clear Value In USA

This is it. The 2025 4 Nations Face-Off ends with a heavyweight tilt between Canada and USA.

This one has animosity, top talent, and all the anticipation in the hockey world. Though the Americans took the round robin meeting between these two teams, oddsmakers have the 4 Nations final as a pick 'em. Both USA and Canada are -110 on the moneyline, with the total set at O/U 5.5 goals at Sportsbook:

USA vs Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Odds

USA vs Canada, February 20th, 8:10 pm ET

Odds as of February 19th at Sportsbook

USA vs Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Picks

USA Moneyline (-110) at Sportsbook

Let me put all my cards on the table: I want Canada to win and I am Canadian. But, deep down, I think the Americans are great value at -110.

USA deserves to be slight favorites in this game, so I don't know why bookmakers insist on making it a pick 'em. Even with injury questions surrounding Auston Matthews and the Tkachuks (and Charlie McAvoy being out), this American squad has one advantage Canada can't match: goaltending.

Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world and that's been on full display at the 4 Nations. Rocking a .957 save percentage into the final, he's the only goalie with multiple starts and a Sv% above .900 in this tournament. Jordan Binnington is rocking a mediocre .892.

Canada has been pretty good about insulating Binnington in these games, but he let in a soft goal against USA in the round robin and nearly choked away a must-win against Finland on Monday. In this final, you can't afford a soft goal and Binnington is far more likely to let than one in than Hellebuyck. Give me the Americans.

USA vs Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Props

Connor McDavid OVER 1.5 Points, +280 at Sportsbook

This 4 Nations tournament has been the McDavid show. He's got four points in three games including a two-point effort in Monday's must-win against Finland. I believe in McDavid when it matters most, as he had three goals and eight points in five elimination games in the NHL playoffs last year. I expect the Oilers' star to come out firing in this final, even if it's not enough for Canada to win.

Jake Guentzel Anytime Goal Scorer, +330 at Sportsbook

Guentzel currently leads the 4 Nations in goal scoring, but is somehow seventh on the anytime goal odds board ahead of this final. He was USA's best skater against Canada in the round robin, too, scoring two of America's three goals. That ability to find the net is just a continuation of what Guentzel has been doing all year in Tampa. He entered the 4 Nations with 27 goals in 54 games, which puts him on pace for the most tucks in his career (41).

Playing in USA's top six with Jack Hughes on his other wing, Guentzel is in the perfect spot to finish off some perfect passes once again in this final.

USA vs Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Betting Trends

• USA hasn't won a best-on-best international men's hockey tournament since 1996
• Canada has won 27 of their last 28 international men's hockey games with Sidney Crosby on the roster
• Sidney Crosby and Zach Werenski are tied for the tournament lead with five points
• Three players are tied for the 4 Nations' lead in goals, including Nathan MacKinnnon and Jake Guentzel
• Matthew Tkachuk had 13 pts in his last six NHL games ahead of 4 Nations