USA and Sweden finish off the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off round robin with a late game on Monday.
The Americans, who have already clinched a spot in the final, remain significant -188 favorites. But, I think there is some value in a Swedish side that will be playing for either pride or a spot in the finals (depending on the result of Finland vs Canada).
I'm taking Sweden +155 at Sportsbook, as well as an Adrian Kempe prop:
USA vs Sweden 4 Nations Face-Off Odds
USA vs Sweden, February 17th, 8:10 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| USA | -1.5 (-168) | -188 | O5.5 (-134) |
| Sweden | +1.5 (+136) | +155 | U5.5 (+110) |
Odds as of February 17th at Sportsbook
USA vs Sweden 4 Nations Face-Off Picks
Sweden Moneyline (+155) at Sportsbook
It's pretty clear the Americans are the more talented side here. They're undefeated in the 4 Nations so far, with a goal differential of +7. But, they've got nothing to play for on Monday night.
With a spot already clinched in the playoffs, I would expect US to give a beat-up Matt Tkachuk the night off, maybe rest some others, and could give a break to star goalie Connor Hellebuyck, too.
If the Finland/Canada game goes to overtime, this Swedish side will have everything to play for — a regulation win would then put them in the final vs USA. Even if they can't clinch a finals spot with a win, I still think Sweden will be playing for pride in this one. They can't go home without a win in this tournament.
With motivation and a plus-money tag, I'm siding with Sweden.
USA vs Sweden 4 Nations Face-Off Props
Adrian Kempe OVER 2.5 Shots -104 at Sportsbook
This (and Matt Tkachuk shots) has been my favorite OVER prop of the 4 Nations, so far.
In the NHL, Kempe is a shot machine for the Kings. He's on pace to break 240 shots for a fourth-straight season, averaging 3.07 per game this year. In his final five NHL games before this tournament, Kempe had four or more shots four times.
That has carried over to the 4 Nations, as Kempe currently leads Sweden with eight shots in two games. He's broken O2.5 SOG in each of his first two contests, as well. The American defense is good, but they still allowed 26 shots to Canada on Saturday. Kempe can certainly manage three or more shots for his third time in the 4 Nations tonight.
