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Can the Leafs Continue Their Underdog Run?

As someone who has the Capitals winning the Stanley Cup, I’m pretty much sick of the Toronto Maple Leafs. They’ve given the Caps one hell of a series so far, taking all of the first three games to overtime, and they’re in position to drive the dagger a little deeper into my heart tonight as they look to take a 3-1 lead. Oddsmakers opened the Lipitor Leafs as the +130 underdogs tonight but Leafs Nation and their misplaced enthusiasm could drive that line down.

  • The Capitals and Maple Leafs have combined for 78.7 shots per game in this series.
  • The Maple Leafs have come back to win 8 times in their last 13 games after not scoring first.
  • The Capitals are 8-3 SU in their last 11 against the Leafs but just 1-6 on the puckline in the last 7.

The eventual collapse and heartbreak is coming from the Leafs, right? It has to. That said, the Caps have the same M.O. as the Buds as a team that has absolutely no clutch gene so something will have to give. It’s purely anecdotal but I feel a shellacking of the Leafs in the cards in the not so distant future and with the Caps desperate to even the series, it could happen Wednesday night.

Although it means very little, the Leafs are 7-20 straight up in their last 27 games on Wednesday and the Caps are 5-0 in their last five on hump day. Maybe it has something to do with the alliteration? Nonetheless, at the beginning of the series, if you were told you could get the Capitals on the moneyline at -145 – you’d be all over it. I don’t think that much has changed (other than the Leafs having a little more hope to crush) and given the talent and experience levels of the two teams, Washington should win.

They will, however, have to generate more than the 26 shots they did on Monday if they want to outscore the Leafs right now. Freddy Andersen has been solid all series with a .925 save percentage and Toronto’s offense just doesn’t quit. I anticipate another counterpunch-type effort from the Caps and that will lead to a large number of scoring chances – take the OVER.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The visiting Washington Capitals opened as -150 moneyline favorites in this one at most online sportsbooks tracked at Odds Shark, including BetOnline. The total opened at 5.5 for those preferring over under betting, watch for the line updates during the day at Bovada.

Odds Shark computer prediction formulas pick a 3.3-2.5 win for the Capitals on Wednesday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Toronto will face the 56-19-10 Capitals. In totals betting, the Maple Leafs are 39-44-2 in over under betting so far this season while the Washington Capitals are 38-32-15. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Toronto vs Washington injuries news.

The Toronto Maple Leafs sit at No. 8 in the current NHL power poll here at Odds Shark, while the Washington Capitals sit at a No. 3 on the same chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Toronto's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 3.07 goals per game, against a Capitals defense that ranks No. 1 at 2.26 goals allowed. The Maple Leafs power play is averaging 24.02% while the Capitals defense kills off 83.63% of their penalties.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Washington lost its last outing, a 4-3 result against the Maple Leafs on April 17. Bettors who backed the Maple Leafs at +123 on the moneyline won on the day, and the total score (7) sent OVER bettors to the payout window.

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Washington is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
  • Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
  • Toronto is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Washington home to Toronto, Friday, April 21st