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Ovechkin Will be Back With a Vengeance as Caps go for Series Win

With the series on the line for the first time, the Maple Leafs will attempt to win Game 6 on their home ice and send the best-of-seven to a finale in Washington. Toronto fans will feel a little hard done by if their team is sent packing tonight as this series has been as close as you can ask for. Four of the five games so far have needed extra time and with the pressure on this evening, expect the Leafs to go down swinging against a much more talented Capitals side.

  • Moneyline underdogs are now 22-18 this postseason. Maple Leafs opened as +130 ML dogs.
  • The Capitals have 5 fewer high danger scoring chances than the Maple Leafs in Toronto this series.
  • The Maple Leafs are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games against the Capitals.

The biggest problem for the Leafs in this one is Alexander Ovechkin. Ovi was taken out by a disgusting knee-on-knee hit from Nazem Kadri in the first period of Game 5 and clearly wasn’t 100 percent when he returned later in the contest. He’ll be a man possessed on Sunday night, throwing the body around like a one-man wrecking ball. The Great 8 is the wrong guy to piss off and I think that dirty hit from Nasty Naz rears its ugly head tonight. I’ll be hoping on an Ovi to score bet at +140 and I may take a look at an Ovi to score two or more bet that’s paying out +500.

An area where the Leafs have excelled all series is on the counter attack. They out-chanced the Caps at the ACC in their two home games so far and I think that continues on Sunday, producing an OVER 5.5. That said, I expect Braden Holtby to stand tall and keep his team in it and am predicting a 4-2 Washington Capitals win. Take the Caps on the puckline, they bury the Leafs tonight.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

If you're going with the Toronto Maple Leafs in this one, they were listed as moneyline underdogs of 128 on most NHL hockey betting menus (such as Bovada) early today for Sunday's contest. The over-under total was at 5.5 earlier at Bet365.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 3-2.8 win for the Maple Leafs. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Supporters of the Washington Capitals have seen them go 58-19-10 so far this season, while the Maple Leafs are at 42-28-17. In totals betting, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 40-45-2, while the Capitals are 39-33-15. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Toronto vs Washington injuries news.

This game puts the Toronto Maple Leafs, most recently No. 8 in the Odds Shark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Washington Capitals, who rate a No. 3 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Toronto's No. 5-ranked offense, averaging 3.06 goals per game, against a Capitals defense that ranks No. 1 at 2.26 goals allowed. The Maple Leafs power play is averaging 23.66% while the Capitals defense kills off 83.74% of their penalties.

Recent Outings Betting Recap


Betting Trends
  • Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Washington is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games
  • Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
  • Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Next Betting Matchups

Washington home to Toronto, Tuesday, April 25th