Tokyo 2020 Day 5 Betting: Ledecky Looks for Redemption

There has been a gold medal awarded for men’s baseball only five times in Olympic history. Since the sport was introduced in 1992, the Americans have won gold once. Meanwhile, the Tokyo 2020 favorites from Japan have played in a medal game each of the five times the tournament has been held but they have never won gold. 

As Day 5 of the Olympics gets underway, we preview the men’s baseball tournament, a chance at some redemption in the pool for Katie Ledecky and an important qualifying game from the soccer pitch.

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Odds Analysis

Among the six teams in this year’s Olympic baseball tournament, it is the host team from Japan that is the consensus gold-medal favorite, listed at -105 to win gold. The Japanese have never won an Olympic baseball title, but they have played in a medal game all five times the tournament was held. 

I’m sure the Japanese would love to have Shohei Ohtani in their lineup, but even without him, Japan’s roster is thought to have the most talent and depth in the tournament.

News & Notes

The last time an Olympic gold medal was awarded in baseball, South Korea upset Cuba in the final game in 2008.

The WBSC World Baseball Rankings have Japan as the No. 1 team in the world. South Korea (+625 to win gold) is ranked third, while the U.S. (+385) is fourth and Mexico (+1000) is fifth. 

In the five previous Olympic tournaments, Japan has played in one gold-medal game and four bronze-medal games. In total, they have won one silver and two bronze medals.

Without MLB players, the Americans are relying on some high-end minor league prospects and former MLB veterans like Todd Frazier, Anthony Gose and Edwin Jackson. Team USA won baseball gold in 2000 and also has collected two bronze medals.

Betting Pick: Team USA +385

I personally believe that Japan has the most depth and talent among the six teams in this tournament. However, it’s baseball, and any time baseball comes down to a one-game final, strange things can happen. At +385, there is a lot of value on Team USA and their odds of upsetting the host nation. 

Sportsbook

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Odds Analysis

In one of the most anticipated events of this year’s Olympics, Ariarne Titmus went head to head with Katie Ledecky in the women’s 400-meter freestyle final and it was the Australian who proved too strong and too fast for Ledecky.

Titmus was the betting favorite going into the 400M final and the oddsmakers got it right. As Ledecky looks to exact some revenge in the 200M freestyle final, it is once again Titmus (-350) who is the front-runner.

News & Notes

In the 400M final, Ledecky jumped out front early and halfway through the race had a lead of almost a full body length over Titmus. However, over the next 100 meters, Titmus was able to pull even and then over the final 100 she pulled away, winning by almost two-thirds of a second. 

Once again Ledecky and Titmus will be side by side for a gold-medal race. Ledecky starts in lane 3, with her Australian rival in lane 4.  

Canadian Penny Oleksiak also qualified for the 200M freestyle final. After winning a silver medal in the 4x100M freestyle relay, Oleksiak now has five career Olympic medals, tying the all-time Canadian Summer Olympics record. Oleksiak is going off at +4000 to win the race and is +400 to medal.

Betting Pick: Ledecky +400 to win

Unfortunately for American swim fans, Ariarne Titmus looks to be in top form. Odds and qualifying times suggest that Katie Ledecky is in tough against Titmus once again. However, in the 400M final, it was the American who dominated the first half of the race. Maybe Ledecky has enough to hold off the Aussie sensation for 200 meters and claim yet another career gold medal. At +400 odds, it’s worth the gamble to find out.

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Odds Analysis

This is an important match for both teams. The Spaniards will advance with either a tie or a win but need a victory to ensure they are the top team coming out of Group C. Spain is a heavy favorite in this match, giving up half a goal and a -115 moneyline.

News & Notes

After a disappointing 0-0 draw with Egypt to start the tournament, Spain rebounded with a 1-0 win against Australia. Although the Spaniards didn’t score until the 81st minute, they dominated possession and most of the game. Spain directed 15 shots toward goal and didn’t allow Australia a single shot on net.

In their match with Australia, Argentina did have slightly more possession time, but of five shots on net they allowed, the Aussies were able to capitalize on two of them. That 2-0 loss has made advancing out of Group C very difficult for Argentina. They will need to beat Spain in their final round-robin match and then get some goal-differential help in the Australia vs Egypt match. Expect Argentina to play an aggressive style against Spain, as they need to win and score goals to advance.

Sportsbook

Betting Pick: Spain -0.5 (-115)

Argentina should play with desperation in this contest as they need a win to advance. Despite the early draw with Egypt, Spain has shown themselves to be the best team in Group C so far. Expect Spain to capitalize if Argentina gets too focused on scoring some much-needed goals. I like Spain to cover the 0.5 goal line and win this game outright.