Tokyo 2020 Day 7 Betting Women’s Soccer Quarterfinal

In the six previous Women’s Olympic Soccer Tournaments, Team USA have won four gold-medals and one silver-medal, proving they are the most dominant female soccer country in the World.

However, if the Americans want to remain the world soccer power and win their fifth Olympic gold-medal all-time, they must improve on their three game round-robin performance. Up first for Team USA, finding a way to get through the offensively gifted Dutch squad in what should prove to be a difficult and high-scoring quarter-final match-up.

Odds Analysis

Before the Olympic soccer tournament started, Team USA was -165 to win the gold-medal.  Now, they are +130 just to win their quarter-final match in regulation.  Those odds tell us the American team struggled mightily in their three round-robin games.  The high-scoring Dutch team are +180 to win and a regulation time draw is +265. 

The total for this game is three (-120 Over) which is a very interesting number when you consider the Netherlands scored 21 goals in  their three games so far.

News & Notes

Team USA just doesn’t lose many soccer games, so when they lost to Sweden in their first game of the tournament, a lot of American soccer fans were surprised, but not necessarily concerned.  When the U.S. failed to beat Australia and the stats showed it was the Aussie’s who won more individual battles and controlled more possession, all of a sudden real doubt started to sink in.  Can the American squad flip the switch now that the round-robin portion is over?  It will be a very interesting watch the rest of the way for Team USA and their supporters.

Most Countries would be disappointed if they gave up a combined five goals to China and Zambia, like the Dutch squad did.  However, when you score 18 goals while giving up only five, maybe it’s not so concerning.  The 3-3 draw between Netherlands and Brazil showed the Dutch can score against good teams as well. Whether they can defend enough to win out the rest of the way will be a great storyline to follow.

Betting Pick: Regulation Time Draw +265

This will be a really fascinating game to watch. Obviously Team USA has not shown their best performance yet, whether they can find it for this quarter-final match-up is still to be determined.  The Dutch so far have given up a lot of goals, but the amount they have scored is truly extraordinary.  These were the top-two ranked teams before the tournament started.  I’m suggesting this game goes to extra-time tied at two and might be decided on penalty-kicks.

Odds Analysis

Before round-robin play started, Canada was a +1200 to win gold, while Brazil was +1600.  During the preliminary matches both teams played some quality games. Canada securing a draw with Great Britain was a good result for the Canadians and Brazil scoring three times to draw with the Dutch 3-3 was a quality point for them.  Sportsbooks were obviously more impressed with Brazil’s three game performance as they are now the betting favorites against Canada.

News & Notes

Both Canada and Brazil advanced from their groups as the second place team.  Canada beat Chile, but wanted a better result than their 1-1 draw with Japan.  Against a favored Great Britain team, Canada conceded a late goal to earn another 1-1 draw, but it was the English squad who controlled the majority of the possession.

Brazil dominated in a 5-0 win over China, but only slipped past Zambia 1-0.  In between those results they earned a draw with a very good Dutch team and gave Brazilian supporters reason to believe a medal might once again be with-in reach.

Betting Pick: Canada to win in regulation (+300)

Again, this will be another great quarter-final match-up, with not a lot separating these two-teams.  Give me the +300 odds in a game that is expected to be closely contested.  I will take Team Canada to beat the team from Brazil in regulation, in what is a rematch of the 2016 bronze-medal game.

Odds Analysis

At +800 pre-tournament, Great Britain was behind only the U.S. and Netherlands as teams favored to win gold.  Coming into the Olympics, the Australians were not expected to be a force in the tournament and were listed at +25000 to win.  Brazil at -125 is a big favorite to win this match.  Was the Aussie’s 0-0 tie against the U.S. a reflection of their good play or the American’s struggles?  This game should help answer that question.

News & Notes

At +800 pre-tournament, the team from Great Britain was a popular futures bet to win gold.  With two wins and one draw so far, the predominantly English squad has been the better team in all three of their games to date.

When Australia beat their neighbors from New Zealand and then lost to Sweden 4-2, not many people were surprised with those results.  When the Aussie’s outplayed and out-battled Team USA, earning a 0-0 draw, soccer fans took notice. At +340 to beat Great Britain, oddsmakers are not convinced Australia can repeat that type of performance in the quarter-finals.

Betting Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

Great Britain conceded only one goal in their three round-robin games.  Against a talented U.S. team, Australia did well to hold the Americans to zero goals and four shots directed on net. Both teams combined to score only eight goals in their six preliminary round games. I expect a tightly contested game with defence being each team's key to success. Take the Under 2.5.

Odds Analysis

In the 2016 Olympic soccer tournament, the Swedish women earned silver medals.  So far in Japan, all Sweden has done to back-up that medal-winning performance is dominate their round-robin matches, including a 3-0 win against Team USA.  Meanwhile the Japanese team qualified third out of their group and were fortunate to make the quarter-finals.  Japan is now a +500 underdog to win this game in regulation.

News & Notes

Sweden cruised to a 3-0 record in the round-robin portion, including a much talked about upset over Team USA.  At +1000 pre-tournament, Sweden was very much considered in contention for a medal and their play so far only strengthens that argument.

Although Japan was fortunate to advance as the third team out of Group E, the Japanese held their own in games against Canada and Great Britain.  They earned a tie against the Canadians and dropped a well played contest 1-0 to Great Britain.

Betting Pick: Sweden -0.5 first half

At -180 to win in regulation, I just don’t see a lot of value betting on Team Sweden, although I do expect them to put in another strong performance.  Japan is good, probably better than the +500 odds for them to win in regulation would suggest.  However, let’s take team Sweden to play a strong Sportsbook half and lead by one goal or more at the break.