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Olympics Golf Odds: Golf Predictions for Tokyo 2020

For the first time in five years, and only the fourth time ever, golf returns to the Summer Olympic Games. With a loaded schedule, some of the world’s best such as Dustin Johnson and Tyrrell Hatton have decided against playing in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, while Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm had to withdraw from the Games due to positive COVID-19 tests. With their names being removed from the field, the Olympics golf odds have taken on a new look.

With the world No. 1 being sidelined, the door has opened for some unlikely candidates to make their way onto the podium. A trio of Americans now lead the way in the Olympics golf odds as they try to bring home the gold. At Bovada, tournament favorite and recent Open champion Collin Morikawa is +700 to take the top prize. These odds imply a 12.50 percent probability of him being able to do so. He’ll have to hold off countryman Xander Schauffele, checking in at +900, and Justin Thomas is not far behind at +1000 in the Olympics golf odds.

Olympic odds are provided by Bovada and updated throughout the Games.

How to bet on the Olympics | Odds for most gold medals | Odds for most medals

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Olympic Golf Odds

Odds to win Gold in Men’s Golf
AthleteOdds
Collin Morikawa (USA)+700
Xander Schauffele (USA)+900
Justin Thomas (USA)+1000
Rory McIlroy (IRL)+1100
Hideki Matsuyama (JPN)+1200
Viktor Hovland (NOR)+1200
Patrick Reed (USA)+1800
Paul Casey (GBR)+1800
Abraham Ancer (MEX)+2200
Joaquin Niemann (CHI)+2200
Cam Smith (AUS)+2500
Corey Conners (CAN)+2500
Shane Lowry (IRL)+2500
Sungjae Im (KOR)+2800
Tommy Fleetwood (GBR)+2800

Odds as of July 27 at Bovada

How Will Hideki Matsuyama Fare in His Home Country?

It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Matsuyama tee it up. Having tested positive for COVID-19 in the middle of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Masters champion has since had to forgo the Open Championship. With plenty of time to quarantine, get healthy and prepare, Matsuyama arrives to his home country with the weight of a nation on his shoulders.

Playing a home game, Matsuyama is one of the few players to have seen Kasumigaseki Country Club before. Having won the 2009 Japan junior championship here, good vibes for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games will inevitably present themselves.

Sitting at +1200 in the Olympics golf odds, Matsuyama is the fifth betting favorite this week. He’ll need to utilize his strong ball-striking that has led him to success at similar courses in the States if he hopes to find success at home. In what would potentially be more popular than his Masters victory, the oddsmakers are in agreement, through their Olympics golf odds, that Matsuyama has a great chance to capture the gold medal.

Olympic Golf Odds: Course and Analysis

With Tom Fazio having led the modernization of Kasumigaseki Country Club a few years ago, the first inclination is to look at a player’s history from Quail Hollow. Specifically, I’ll be looking at the 2017 PGA Championship combined with Masters history as an avenue to success.

At those two venues, distance off the tee is a primary factor, as well as approach play, as it typically is week to week on the PGA Tour. Stretching out to nearly 7,450 yards and playing to a par 71, players will need to contend with a nice mixture of gettable, short par 4s and difficult par 3s where par is a good score.

On paper and in the flyovers, the green complexes and the par 3s appear to be the main defense with the three par 5s all presenting fantastic scoring opportunities. With hints of Augusta National on the property, touch around the greens cannot be understated as deep bunkering and mowed-off areas loom large.

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Olympics Golf Odds Best Bet

Marc Leishman (+3300 to win):

I imagine that the Tokyo 2020 Olympics leaderboard could shake out similar to that of the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. There you had Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama all in the mix and something along those lines unfolding is very likely. However, a bit further down the leaderboard, you’d find the name Marc Leishman, who finished in a tie for 13th.

That’s where we’ll begin with our Olympics golf odds. Leishman, outside of the first round of the Open, has been playing decent enough. After a poor stretch of golf in the middle of the summer, he has appeared to regain his footing on the season. With Leishman possessing a streaky putter and coming off a third-place finish at the Travelers Championship, I believe his experience in this region of the world cannot be understated.

With strong starts at courses such as Augusta National, Quail Hollow and even Torrey Pines to some extent, Leishman should feel more than comfortable at Kasumigaseki CC. He’s proven if he is in the mix with some of the world’s best, he will not wilt to the pressure, and with it turned up a touch for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, that should only play into his hands.

Olympics Golf Odds Mid-Tier

Si Woo Kim (+5000 to win):

The biggest storyline of the Tokyo 2020 golf odds is Kim. Needing to medal in order to avoid mandatory service in the South Korean military, Kim needs his best stuff this week in Japan. While the recent form may be a bit of a question mark, the motivation levels certainly are not as he skipped the Open in order to prepare for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games.

He’s been plenty strong tee to green as well, so if the putter cooperates, he should find himself with a chance. Before withdrawing mid-tournament from the John Deere Classic, Kim’s game was in a great spot. Posting performances of +6.0 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at the Memorial and +6.0 SG: Tee to Green at the U.S. Open, something similar could be in store.

While he doesn’t have much history at Quail Hollow, Kim has taken a liking to Augusta National. He was in contention this past spring before his anger got the better of him, breaking his putter in the second round and eventually finishing in a tie for 12th. Before then, he had made three consecutive cuts at the Masters, with finishes of 34th, 21st and 24th.

Olympics Golf Odds Value Picks

Carlos Ortiz (+8000 to win):

Ortiz’s recent form has been a bit forgettable. Coming off a missed cut at the Open, the Mexican’s best finish this summer is a measly T-16 at the Memorial. The game appears to be there and possibly a trip to Tokyo will be the melting pot where it all boils together.

Typically very strong on and around the greens, those are the aspects of the game that have been holding back Ortiz. Needing to be much more reliant on his ball-striking, he has found form with those clubs in his bag.

With performances of +4.8 SG: Approach at the Byron Nelson and +9.5 SG: Approach at the Memorial, he can strike his irons with the best of them when he is on. If he finds his long-term form closer to the hole, Ortiz is more than capable of taking down the big names. En route to his lone PGA Tour victory, he had to go through the likes of Johnson and Matsuyama and that experience could prove to be invaluable at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

Mackenzie Hughes (+8000 to win):

The Canadian has dialed up his game for big-time events this season and here’s hoping that remains true for the Olympics. Posting a T-15 finish at the U.S. Open and a T-6 at the Open Championship, Hughes’ game is clearly in a good spot heading into the Summer Games, yet he remains further down the Olympics golf odds.

Known for his deft touch on the greens, the irons have picked up of late, which is the main reason behind his recent success. Posting +3.2 SG: Approach at the U.S. Open and +1.4 SG: Approach at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Hughes carried the iron play over to Royal St. George’s. If those irons show up in Tokyo, he will certainly play a factor.

Olympics Golf Odds Long Shots

C.T. Pan (+12500 to win):

Following the mold of success at Quail Hollow and Augusta National, Pan should be worthy of consideration for the Olympics. I’ll wait to see which prop markets come out, but I figure Pan could be a sleeper who finds his way onto the podium somehow. In 2016, all of the medalists were among the favorites in the Olympics golf odds, so this may be an unorthodox way in which we find some success.

As such, we’ll take a nibble at his outright odds, as the ball-striking has been strong enough despite the recent skid he is on. Having missed three cuts in a row, Pan hasn’t been able to get his entire bag to cooperate for a full week. I’m willing to wager this week at the Olympics Games it does, as he has posted a top-10 finish at Augusta and a top-20 at Quail Hollow in recent memory. As an added bonus, he enjoyed a great Presidents Cup in 2020 at Royal Melbourne, a course in the same region of the world and with some features similar to Kasumigaseki CC.