There's been a massive shift in the US Presidential Odds. Trump is no longer a 45-point favorite on the board. That gap has been cut massively with both candidates locked in at +110.
So what changed for this massive swing?
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +110 |
| Donald Trump | +110 |
Odds as of April 24
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Democrats | -120 |
| Republicans | -105 |
Odds as of April 24
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds
While the odds for individual candidates might be at a deadlock, that's not the case for the party lines. Democrats are favored to win the election at -120. I'm not sure how that works exactly.
Looking at the Democratic Nominee and Republican Nominee odds, Joe Biden and Donald Trump have locked up their party nominations. So the electability of both parties rests in their hands, no? So shouldn't the odds be the same?
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Trump's Falling Popularity
Look, we know Trump owns the Republican Party. But to win a Presidential election he has to appeal to more than just the GOP. He's got to pull in centrists and even some on the center-left.
We have to remember that Trump has never won the popular vote. He went from a -2.8 million gap in the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and then -7 million to Biden in 2020.
The primary season isn't officially over yet, but we're also seeing a slowdown in Trump's popularity within his own party. In 2020 we saw Trump win 94% of the vote in the primaries. An insane number of votes. But this year, with 79% of the contests decided, Trump only has 75% of the votes but won 95% of the contests.
If Trump is losing steam within his own party, there's very little chance he can convince enough centrists to win in 2024. Look Trump's unfavorability is rising, sitting at 53% as of April 24 per FiveThirtyEight. And that's before his hush money trial is concluded, should Trump be proven guilty that unfavorable rate likely goes up.
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Joe Biden's Age
Trump's path to victory is going to rest in Biden's hands. If Biden can't convince the American people he shouldn't be placed in an old folks home, the Republican wins. Remember, Joe is 81 and will turn 82 days after the election. The average age for those moving into retirement communities is 75 and 84. The average age of US presidents is 55.
Joe is closer to prime shuffleboard age than prime Commander in Chief age. (Though to be fair, Trump is no spring chicken. The Donald will be 78 in June.)
As President, Biden has done a great job keeping inflation under control and unemployment low.
Inflation (the rise in costs), has been steadily below 3.25% since October of 2023. Remember that the Fed (and most Central Banks) aim for a 2% inflation rate. Cutting national inflation by a third from 9+% in July of 2022 to what it is now is a massive achievement.
Joe's had the same impact on unemployment. His administration has brought it down from 6.3% when he stepped into the job to 3.7%. And he's kept it at 3.7% for months now.
Keeping costs low and people employed is a huge win for him. But will it be enough to ward off the (justifiable) fears of his age?
US President Odds: Favorite Usually Wins
Usually the favorite wins. Of 59 Presidential elections only four have been won by an underdog. Trump is one of only four candidates to win the White House as the underdog since 1916.
| Election | Underdog | Favorite |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Donald Trump (+375) | Hillary Clinton (-550) |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter (+100) | Gerald Ford (-120) |
| 1948 | Harry Truman (+1500) | Thomas Dewey (-1800) |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson (+110) | Charles Evans Hughes (-110) |
How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this:
- Joe Biden +650
- Donald Trump +800
- Ron DeSantis +2500
The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case, Joe Biden, is considered the betting favorite for this market.
Now, if you believe that Ron DeSantis will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he is elected in 2024, you'd get $2600 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $2500 in profit.
Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
What Are Presidential Futures?
Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.
Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.
