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AAF Week 3 Betting Preview and Picks

Atlanta Legends running back Tarean Folston during the game between the Atlanta Legends and the San Diego Fleet on February 17, 2019 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, CA

Week 3 of the inaugural Alliance of American Football season is here. Week 2 featured more scoring than the debut slate of games, but the biggest news came after the games were played.

Late Monday night, The Athletic reported the league was “running short on cash” just two weeks into its season. The league allegedly missed payroll in Week 1, which caused Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon to step in and invest $250 million. Now that that issue is in the rear-view mirror, it looks like the AAF is here to stay.

I went 2-2 in my picks last week after correctly predicting Orlando-San Antonio to go OVER and Atlanta-San Diego to go UNDER. Birmingham and Salt Lake both won, yet failed to cover the spread as favorites.

Here’s a betting breakdown of each game along with my best pick for the matchup.

Arizona Hotshots vs Salt Lake Stallions (+4.5, 44)

These teams met in Week 1 when Arizona easily handled Salt Lake 38-22 as Hotshots quarterback John Wolford threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns. Along with the Apollos, the Hotshots’ offense has been something to behold through two weeks. Despite being shut out in the first half against Memphis, Arizona has still managed 58 points on the campaign.

With the Stallions set to play their first home game of the campaign, I expect them to give Arizona a decent game, but I don’t think they have the offense to go toe to toe with the Hotshots.

The pick: Hotshots -4.5

Memphis Express vs Orlando Apollos (-15, 45)

It only took two weeks for books to adjust to how good the Apollos are, but the -15 spread says everything you need to know about Orlando so far. That number has to do with both the Apollos being head and shoulders above the rest of the league and the Express being a massive disappointment.

Steve Spurrier’s squad put up 40 points in the opener and 37 last week, while the Express are 0-2 through two home games and hit the road for the first time. Christian Hackenberg has been underwhelming under center and has the Express looking like major fade material. Home teams are 6-2 SU and ATS in the 2019 AAF campaign and I expect that trend to continue in this one.

The pick: Apollos -15

Birmingham Iron vs Atlanta Legends (+7, 38)

This game features the lowest total of the week for a reason. At 0-2, the Legends look like the worst team in the league and haven’t been able to figure out things on either side of the ball. Atlanta is making its first appearance at Georgia State Stadium, but I don’t think playing in front of the hometown fans will be the remedy for this anemic offense.

The Iron are 2-0 and are hitting the road for the first time. Birmingham’s offense was nothing to write home about last week, as the squad totaled only 216 total yards. The Iron are a defense-first group, which is a great recipe for UNDER bettors. Besides, the UNDER is 6-2 in eight AAF contests.

The pick: UNDER 38

San Antonio Commanders vs San Diego Fleet (-2.5, 43.5)

San Antonio topped San Diego 15-6 in Week 1 in a defensive battle, but both teams saw their offenses come to life in Week 2, putting up a combined 51 points. The Commanders and Fleet grabbed two and three interceptions respectively in the opener but I think this one is going to be more wide open offensively.

I expect this to be the tightest game of the week between two evenly matched teams, but with the Fleet playing their second home contest in a row and the Commanders playing on the road for the first time, I’m on the Fleet as home chalk.

The pick: Fleet -2.5